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Yesterday in the province of Frosinone only 2 new cases of Covid-19. They are those relative to the previous day (that is, Monday). But also yesterday the ASL broke the record of swabs made: more than 950. And due to the leaked news, the positive swabs are numerous and therefore today’s cases could be between twenty and thirty.
Naturally, the Health Authority is carrying out the location work, which is also essential to locate the municipalities of residence of the infected people.
And this means that they could also be residents outside the province. But the number of positive swabs is high. We recall that so far the maximum number of people infected by Covid-19 in a single day in Ciociaria was 47, reached on March 26, in what remains the week of the peak of the contagion curve.
The profile of the curve
The two infections yesterday are from people residing in the municipalities of Alatri and Veroli. We are in the thirty-second week since the start of the pandemic in the province of Frosinone. And there were 13 cases on October 5 and 2 on October 6. In total, therefore, 15, for an average of 7.5 every twenty-four hours. In the thirty-first week, the trend was as follows: 13 cases on September 28, 3 on 29, 11 on 30, 15 on October 1, 21 on second, 19 on third, and 23 on October 4. For a total of 105 in seven days. The average was 15 every twenty-four hours. The thirtieth week, the previous one, closed with 99 new infections, for an average of 14.14. With this sequence: 8 cases on September twenty-one, 9 on twenty-two, 1 on twenty-three, 13 on twenty-four, 31 on twenty-five, 21 on twenty-six, 16 on twenty-seven. The complete trend of infections in the different weeks: 1.14 cases per day in the first week, 7.4 the second, 15.85 the third, 30.57 the fourth, 15.71 the fifth, 8.42 the sixth, 6.71 seventh, 5 eighth, 2 ninth, 1 tenth, 0.85 eleventh, 0.42 twelfth, 0.71 thirteenth, 0.57 fourteenth, 0.57 fifteenth, 0.14 sixteenth, 0.57 seventeenth, 0.85 eighteenth, 0 nineteenth, 0.57 twenty the twenty-first. And 0 cases in the twenty-second. Therefore, 1.14 in the twenty-third and twenty-fourth, 5.85 in the twenty-fifth, 14.14 in the twenty-sixth. And 6.2 in the twenty-seventh. Then 5.57 in the 28. And 2.28 in the twenty-ninth, 14.14 in the thirtieth. In the thirty-first 15. Then the monthly data: an average of 13.8 cases per day in March, 7.63 in April, 0.83 in May, 0.46 in June, 0.35 in July, 5.16 in August . In September 223 in thirty days. For an average of 7.43.
As of October, 93 cases in six days so far. The average is 15.5 every twenty-four hours. We were talking about the week of the peak: 14 new infections on March twenty-third, 32 on twenty-four, 26 on twenty-five, 47 on twenty-six, 29 on twenty-seven, 42 on twenty-eight, 24 on March twenty-ninth. In summary, 214 infections. The mean was 30.57. But it was precisely at that moment that the top management of the Frosinone Health Authority (manager Stefano Lorusso and medical director Patrizia Magrini) decided the attack strategy: swabs to identify asymptomatic patients.
The situation in the hospital
There are currently 14 Covid patients hospitalized at Fabrizio Spaziani hospital in Frosinone. Everything in the Infectious Diseases pavilion, which has 14 seats but can easily be transformed into 26 even considering the upper floor. As happened at the time of greatest impact of the pandemic, at the beginning. It was then that the then manager Stefano Lorusso and the medical director (now interim general manager) Patrizia Magrini began the transformation of Fabrizio Spaziani into a Covid hospital and referral center. With these numbers: 26 places in Infectious Diseases, 40 in the Covid Medicine Service, 20 in the Covid Emergency Medicine Service and 20 in Intensive Care. For a total of 106. It must be said that at this time there are no Covid patients in intensive care. And this is a fact to take into account. A patient, already hospitalized, who needed intensive therapy (but not intubation) was transferred to Spallanzani in Rome on the night of Monday to Tuesday.
In any case, it is clear that if the ASL of Frosinone were to serve, it is ready to reactivate the structure of the Covid hospital of Fabrizio Spaziani.
Insulation at home
In this situation there are more than a thousand people currently in the province of Frosinone. The positives, that is, those who have contracted the Coronavirus, are 201. They are asymptomatic or paucisymptomatic people, who therefore have a widely manageable clinical picture. Although there are 800 negatives, that is, people who do not have the virus but who have come into contact with those infected. Those that are part of the links. The numbers have grown exponentially in the last two months, starting in August. Of course, the fact that there are few hospitalizations is an important fact. During the confinement, each positive case had an average of four to five contacts. While now the contacts of each infected fluctuate between ten and twenty. A thousand people at home (positive in home surveillance, negative in fiduciary isolation) obviously represent a super job for health workers (doctors, nurses, assistants) of the complex Public Hygiene Operative Unit. Also struggling with monitoring situations in schools.
Test buffers
Yesterday the record for oropharyngeal swabs made in the province of Frosinone: 950. To make comparisons, it is enough to consider that in the first weeks, the ones with the greatest impact of the pandemic, the average number of swabs was 300. With peaks of 420. In the first weeks Last weeks you travel on an average between 600 and 700. With the three Drive Through stations in Frosinone, Cassino and Sora very busy. Then there are the serological tests performed by the Frosinone Local Health Authority on different categories of operators. To date, 19,434 have been carried out: the positives are 351, for a percentage of 1.8%. On the side of serological tests, the positives are those that have developed antibodies, which therefore have contracted the Coronavirus in most cases asymptomatic or paucisymptomatic.
The serological test is an important tool to establish the circulation of the virus. The antibodies synthesized as a result of an infection are of three types. We start with type M immunoglobulins (IgM): they are the antibodies produced in the initial phase of the disease. The positivity for IgM therefore identifies a recent infection. Then there are type G (IgG) immunoglobulins – these are antibodies produced at a later stage, called memory antibodies. Finally, immunoglobulins type A (IgA): some tests also evaluate the presence of IgA, which are antibodies present on the surface of the mucous membranes of the respiratory system.
The increase cured
Those cured, that is, those who have overcome the disease, have risen to 802. Of the 1,180 infected. 67.9%. But it is clear that this number is destined to increase. And this confirms the operation of the treatments against the disease.
The different indices
The residents in the 91 Municipalities of Ciociaria are 489,083. The death rate measures the relationship between pandemic deaths (60) and the number of inhabitants. It means that there was one death from coronavirus for every 8,151.38 inhabitants. With a mortality rate of 0.012%. Therefore, dividing the number of inhabitants by the number of positive subjects for Covid (1,180), it follows that one person for every 414.47 residents was infected. Then there is the case fatality rate, which is the ratio of people infected so far (1,180) to deaths (60). This ratio is 5.08%.
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