[ad_1]
Where are we with the epidemic? Do we really run the risk of a new blockade? What are the real risks Italians run? Questions that follow. Many doubts and few certainties. So much so that even the president of the Senate, Elisabetta Casellati, called on the government for a greater commitment on the information front, to avoid the continuous confusion of data and news. In fact, there are many questions that are not answered by official statistics, which fuels a sense of insecurity and uncertainty. Little is known, for example, about the real number of victims, about the real state of those infected, about how the economy is expanding and even about the situation of those hospitalized. Not to mention the famous CTS minutes: those of a few months ago were published. But the new ones? Absolute silence. And, on the other hand, there are many figures and questions on which finally it would be necessary to clarify to have an exact image of the situation and, therefore, to be more …
Where are we with the epidemic? Do we really run the risk of a new blockade? What are the real risks Italians run? Questions that follow. So many doubts and few certainties. So much so that even the president of the Senate, Elisabetta Casellati, called on the government for a greater commitment on the information front, to avoid the continuous confusion of data and news. In fact, there are many questions that are not answered in official statistics, which fuels a sense of insecurity and uncertainty. Little is known, for example, about actual number of victims, in the real status of the infected, about how heeconomy and even on the situation of hospitalized. Not to mention the famous minutes from Cts: those of a few months ago were published. But the new ones? Absolute silence. And, on the other hand, there are many figures and issues on which it is finally necessary to clarify in order to have an exact picture of the situation and, therefore, be more aware of the risks second wave of Covid.
Who are the victims?
The official statistics, produced daily by Civil Protection, the Higher Institute of Health and the Scientific Technical Committee, are objectively incomplete. And in fact, compared to the initial phase of the emergency, when almost daily press conferences were scheduled, they have even been reduced. We know little or nothing, for example, about the average age of the victims in recent weeks. A figure that, although not continuously, was delivered in the first phase of the epidemic. But even the death toll is missing some fundamental evidence to understand the evolution of the pandemic. For example, we do not know if specific investigations are carried out on deceased patients in hospitals. And, if above all, if all those who test positive are automatically included in the list of Covid victims. They may have died from previous illnesses. But this is not specified in the information released by the competent institutions. It is not even known what kind of investigations are carried out on the victims and, above all, if these are also carried out in the case of young people.
Where do we get sick?
The official figures do not provide any information on the origin of the infection. The information did not go beyond a few sample surveys. In the absence of a reliable “contact tracing” system, it is difficult to identify hazard numbers. It is therefore unknown whether the main source of contagion is family relationships or public transport, work, parties or nightlife. Probably, only in a few weeks, it will be possible to calculate a first effect of the reopening of the school on the contagion curve. For now, only one figure relative to school personnel, teaching and non-teaching, subjected to serological tests: just under 1% were positive.
CTS minutes, always secret?
Finally, part of the minutes was published. But the new ones are still top secret. It would be useful for the government to clarify this issue, specifying whether, for example, it intends to make the reports of the last sessions available to citizens, thus helping to clarify the real situation in the country. Otherwise, if the government decides not to publish them, it should at least provide some justification for their secrecy.
How are the sick?
The information available has many holes. We know, for example, the number of symptomatic and asymptomatic patients (who obviously underwent the swab). But no more details: the statistics do not inform us about the real health conditions of the infected, if they have a fever, cough, have lost smell and taste, or if they already have bilateral interstitial pneumonia. The same happens with asymptomatic patients: we do not know what they are like, what are the effects of the virus, what are the consequences in the short and medium term.
The identikit of the patients
Here, too, the statistics are at least incomplete. It is true that we know how many patients infected by the virus are hospitalized with more or less severe symptoms, those who are in intensive care and those who are in home isolation. But the Civil Protection numbers tell us nothing about the ‘seriousness’ of the conditions of those infected or positive. It would be interesting, for example, to know how many of those who tested positive for the virus were actually hospitalized. In France and other European countries, for example, this is a number that experts carefully consider to make reliable predictions about the spread of the virus and take related countermeasures. In Italy, on the other hand, to decide on any confinement, local or general, the national contagion transmission index, the so-called RT, or the average number of infections transmitted per individual is considered almost exclusively. The goal, of course, is to keep it below unity. But according to experts, it would be very important to know the relationship between hospitalized and infected in order to develop predictive models.
© All rights reserved
