Coronavirus, the boom in cases analyzed by the expert: “Infections will never go down.” There are two possible scenarios

ROME – Now the numbers leave no more doubts: the increase in Covid-19 cases that has been registered in Italy for a few days cannot be attributed to a random variation: “This is not a fluctuation, we will not return now,” he says. physicist Giorgio Sestili, founder and one of the curators of Facebook page “Coronavirus: scientific data and analysis”, which has followed the trend of the epidemic from the beginning.

Therefore, we face a different situation compared to just a few days ago and the change is too recent to clearly see what will happen. “At the moment there are two possibilities: either the cases will stabilize at least for a period at the recent values ​​of more than 2,500 positive cases, or an escalation has begun.” The answer may come in the next few days and weeks. “We cannot know what will happen, but it is true – Sestili observes – that infections will no longer drop below 2,500, net of the fluctuations that depend on tampons, as happens on weekends.”

So we can face a step analogous to that which in August had rapidly caused the number of cases to rise from a few hundred to more than a thousand. “So it was a combination of causes that determined the jump. For example – he observes – the infections imported from abroad and the overcrowding of the premises on the summer night had a great impact.

In the case of this early fall the jump could be a consequence of the “resumption of work and school activities. In general – Sestili observes – in autumn our habits change: we spend more time indoors and use more public transport ».

Hoping to understand how the situation will evolve, One piece of information not to be missed is that of admissions to intensive care facilities. At the moment it is clear that current growth is much slower than that which occurred in February-March, but “we are in a situation of total evolution and that must be watched. The problem – he says – is to understand how long the National Health Service will endure before reaching saturation.

To keep the situation under control The three key prevention measures are very necessary, wear masks, respect your distance, and wash your hands frequently. “The obligation to wear masks outdoors is also welcome to avoid contagion in overcrowded situations, such as entering and leaving schools or in the streets of nightlife, but there is no doubt – Sestili concludes – that if they are respected the rules do not need more restrictions.