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Today’s Civil Protection Bulletin, October 4, registers Italy on the fifth consecutive day of infections due to excess quota 2000. Numbers that start to worry me a lot, despite the slight contraction that 2,578 positives represented today, compared to the record number of +2,844 from yesterday. “A decrease, yes, but what matters is the trend”, begins to explain the professor of Hygiene Patrizia Laurenti.
“We need to focus on the fact that for the ninth week in a row we are witnessing an increase in cases. This is an incontrovertible fact that undoubtedly should be called attention, especially if we take into account that the current figures are the same as those registered in the March period. However, the numbers are not the only aspect to consider today to better understand where we are going.
What else should you keep in mind, professor?
“We need to make the difference between the two periods. In March, the epidemic was growing in a context of almost zero knowledge of the disease. Therefore, using hard figures today compared to a very different start to a pandemic can be misleading. The beyond 2,000 Infections must be located in a very different epidemiological context, which must take into account the greater knowledge we have of the virus. Today we have tests and certainties that we did not have at that time. So, from the point of view of the impact of clinical care, we are not facing the tragedy that we experienced in March.
The number of infections on October 4 compared to March mainly affects asymptomatic people or with mild symptoms, almost the 36% We located them by following contact tracing activities and almost the 30% with the projection activity. Clinically, therefore, the impact is less. The thing to keep in mind is that these people can still spread the virus.
He highlighted admissions data as a special note from the latest newsletters. Today we register 83 more units for the ordinary ones, 303 people in intensive care. It echoes France, certainly in a worse state with almost 17 thousand positives, but which has registered a boom in terms of hospitalizations. Are we heading towards a winter that will bring us closer to the condition of the most threatened European countries?
«Sociality is one of the greatest dangers for the epidemiological situation in Italy at the moment. Meetings, parties, occasions in closed places where the rules are not respected are the main sources of risk. This seems to be old news but sadly, many have not yet made it into the head. That is why the restrictions that we must re-adhere to, and at the national level, I think they are inevitable.
You mean the new dpcm of October 7? Do you think the idea of mini-enclosures and outdoor masks is the way to go back to similar scenarios to phase 1?
“I do not think we are moving towards a new total closure and I do not think it is necessary at the moment, given the greater capacity, compared to the first phase, to intercept and treat the virus. I think the idea of mini-lockdowns is now inevitable because it is from social contexts that the virus is currently circulating and increasing. It is still necessary to work on the way of living sociality. If you allow me, there is still another information to continue clarifying.
Which is which?
“The number of tampons. Let’s get rid of the idea of registering more positives because more buffers are being made. This is not the equation to clarify. The data to underline is the relationship between the positive swabs and those made. This tells us much more about the trend of cases and is currently growing steadily.
An aspect that currently we cannot ignore and that requires a step back from the rules that until recently we were free to lighten. To date, it is not necessary to wear the mask outdoors by walking alone and at a safe distance from others. But given the irresponsibility shown in situations where care is needed, the times when freer behavior could be afforded will also be sacrificed. We have not always been able to manage behaviors by contextualizing and having common sense ».
Speaking of common sense, the soccer league topic is going crazy. The teams adopt different behavioral strategies, first of all the example of the difficult situation Napoli-Juventus. That we meet?
«To some important risks, the result, let me say, of a lack of intelligence. In addition to a total lack of respect. We need everyone to have the intelligence to respect public health decisions. Trusting the decisions of the health authority is the first demonstration of awareness that Covid is not a game ”.
What is the healthcare tool we will need in light of the latest data?
“The reception facilities in the area will have to be strengthened for people who are not clinically very seriously ill but who need to be isolated. That is, hospitals must now be able to discharge people who do not need high-intensity care. Therefore, it will be necessary to identify suitable structures in the area. In March the hotel file was produced. We need to find similar reception structures. ‘
What is the good news today?
“I would say there are two. The first is that the size of the case growth is 10 times smaller than in neighboring countries. A conscience that, rather than making us rest, should put us in the best conditions to be able to do even better prevention. We are able to do it. I also believe that this is the last winter that we will live in these conditions, a stimulus of hope that should spur us to do even more.
The second positive aspect is that today the therapeutic approach to be adopted is clearer. We know which medicine to administer, we know at what stage in the natural history of the disease we are. That is why the clinical results are less devastating than in March, we have consolidated ourselves from the point of view of the pharmacological approach and it is no small thing ”.
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