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What is President Donald Trump thinking, in his hospital bed at Walter Reed in Bethesda, Washington DC, the hospital dedicated to the doctor who, in the 19th century, discovered how yellow fever is transmitted through mosquitoes? To recover, a seventy-year-old man hospitalized for Covid-19, overweight, with a risk of death that medicine estimates at 4.5%? In the daring challenge launched until last Tuesday, “the virus does not affect anyone,” or the $ 421 million that it must soon return, according to the IRS tax collector, with a personal guarantee. ? To the peace strategy for the Middle East led by his son-in-law Jared Kushner and which led to the “Abrahamic Pact” between the Emirates, Bahrain and Israel? His younger brother Robert, with whom he appears to be related, who died on August 16. ? To the crowd that, just a few days ago, invoked him, demanding jail time for the Democratic candidate, former Vice President Joe Biden known as “Pisolo”, as the dwarf from Snow White? In the televised debate, in which “Trump” was, like never before, interrupting, mocking, attacking his rival, making poor moderator Chris Wallace the laughingstock, while his family and the First Lady, in the front row, paraded masks , violating current sanitary regulations, with the pride with which an army of conquerors wave the flags torn from the defeated ? Or at the party on the White House lawn to celebrate the impending appointment of Justice Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court, a feat that will extend Trump’s influence into the second half of the 21st century?
It was an old-fashioned Republican event, fancy suits, Marines, Secret Service, salutes, hugs, pats on the back, Attorney General Barr, Trumpian ultras, immortalized blowing their noses and then shaking hands with stunned passersby. In the background, the gardens redesigned by First Lady Melania, in the draconian style with which she decorated Christmas at the Presidents’ mansion, although we now know, from the recordings of a collaborator, that she hated them herself.. Notables, senators, spokesmen, the usual respectable bums, the Reverend President of Notre Dame Catholic University John Jenkins, where Coney Barrett studied, the crowded Trumpian inner circle without masks or social distancing. Epidemiologists now consider this “super-spreading” ceremony, the occasion of multiple infections, which infected, among others, at least three senators, indispensable for the leader of the Senate majority, Mitch McConnell, and the president of the Justice Commission , Lindsey Graham, to approve the Coney Barrett.
If other cases are confirmed in the next few hours, the limited time available for voting will tighten, McConnell has postponed the Senate sessions to October 19, Graham the Commission sessions to 12. You can participate in the discussion remotely , but – explains Professor Larry Sabato – the final vote must be in person, in Congress, in the capital. Republicans will succeed, after the turnaround that, in 2016, suspended Judge Garland, appointed by Democratic President Obama, despite the fact that there are still 9 months to vote, appoint a judge a week before the elections? And, if Biden wins on November 3, will they have the cheek, the unprecedented cheek, to vote in the interregnum before the January opening?
Washington does not discuss anything else, while the guests multiply the swabs, an application tries to verify the subsequent meetings and the abandoned Reverend John Jenkins of Notre Dame is positive and 200 students, in a motion, demand his resignation for having neglected the university governs as a “hypocrite” .
So what does the president think, after an affectionate tweet dedicated to Walter Reed’s health personnel, among the best in the world but part of that American public health that he has always opposed, in public and in private, and in the one waiting for approval? of the economic stimulus in Parliament, blocked so far by his party and a reassuring message on video at night?
So, to try to imagine what could really go through the head of the president, who fell in 24 hours from the roof of the world to a hospital bed due to a disease whose threat he has always denied, I called Mr. G., a businessman who has a long lived in Trump Tower, New York, Fifth Avenue, a few floors from the Trump house suite. He is an affable and successful man, involved in a thousand Manhattan affairs, tied to Italy by contracts and relationships, who is one of Trump’s few close friends and who does not show off, which is even more unusual in the business. the personal benefits report. His response, after the jokes among New Yorkers in the days of Covid, is surprising: “I’ll tell you, villager, what Donald thinks. Not what you journalists have in mind, not your fellow party members, not even the Democrats for whom I will not vote and hope to lose, despite the polls. Think of one thing Italians will understand: “But who made me do it? I could have been in Mar a Lago, Florida, spending the winter in my residence, it was popular, even if I was in debt, TV created rivers of cash, cash, to continue, I have already passed bankruptcy and I have risen again. What advantage would creditors have in executing and ruining me? They know that I pay them. I was a candidate and nobody gave me a chance, after 4 years, the impeachment, the taxes in the streets, the economy destroyed by the virus, the fights with Dr. Fauci over the pandemic, I am here: who forced me To do it. ? “.
I do not know if Mr. G., despite his familiarity with Trump, is right, it may be, like an old fox, that he “turns” him, tells me something to continue helping, as he can, his partner, however he catches a thread of truth. If illustrious analysts, politicians, friends and other foreign leaders – except the wise Angela Merkel – have suffered from Trump’s offensives, it is because they persist in judging him with the classical bar, economists would say rational expectations, like Reagan or Clinton, Bush. son or Obama, able to calculate profits and losses in each negotiation. Trump no, his strategy of chaos leads him, each time, to double the bets, whatever card he has in his hand, confident that, if defeated, he will go into debt, with the dealer and with destiny, starting in a new adventure.
Preparing him for the face-to-face debate with Biden, on September 29, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie urged him to appear “presidential,” moderate, not to give Biden a voice, to attack him against his son Hunter. , involved in controversial matters in Ukraine, but respecting his eldest son Beau, a decorated Iraqi veteran and prominent Attorney General, who passed away prematurely. Christie is a classic example of Trump’s regard for the collaborators, a disorderly and rebellious group: of the last three campaign managers, Manafort, Bannon and Parsdale, the first two are in jail, the third arrested in Florida for threatening to his wife in arms.
Considered, as the Republican governor of New Jersey in the smell of the White House, the first to fight for the entrepreneurial candidate, Christie hoped after the 2016 victory for a government seat, the party leadership, at least one rank embassy . He was unaware, unlike Mr. G., of the inflexible rules of the Trump house, outlined by the hostile niece Mary, daughter of the president’s older brother, Fred jr. in a ruthless memory. While she was still a magistrate, Christie sent Charles Kushner, father of Jared, the husband of her favorite daughter Ivanka Trump, guilty of tax evasion, political corruption and even hiring a prostitute, to prison to blackmail her brother-in-law and make . The young Kushner flew with his father every week to visit him behind bars at the Alabama Federal Penitentiary, and he never forgot the humiliation. Christie was unceremoniously thrown into oblivion until, in the turbulent 2020 campaign, with so many leaving ship at risk, he was called out. Fate is still not his friend, first Trump ignored his advice in the debate, ridiculing him, then he himself caught Covid, which collaborators transmitted to each other, like the curse of a witch in Shakespeare’s Macbeth. .
If you get rid of the disease that has had more than seven million cases in the United States and has left 208,000 victims even due to the crazy management of the government, as his predecessor Barack Obama wished him in a tweet, whether or not Trump was reelected in November will remain Trump. Anyone who fools himself in another way is wrong. Statistics, like medicine, is an empirical science, developed from mistakes. In 2016 he did not foresee the 0.6%, the 78,000 votes out of 138 million, decisive for Trump and had to remake all the American champions, extending them to the underrated white voters without a title, who gave, invisible to the radar of the algorithms, the success to the Republicans. Since 1996, Clinton versus Senator Bob Dole, no candidate has been left behind the entire campaign without losing. Biden is at least 8 points ahead nationally and also has the same lead in Pennsylvania, outperforming Ohio and Florida, crucial states for Trump./.
We will see, in 30 days, if the statistics have improved in four years or if, once again, Trump’s strategy of chaos wins, even with the champion brought down by the epidemic. Whatever happens, Mr. G. has no doubts: “Trust me, Donald will still be Donald. On November 4, if he is beaten, he will go, with Jared by his side, to negotiate contracts for a talk show, a best-selling book, the launch of a media-political network, like Fox News but that speaks to the hard base, militias. Proud Boys and the QAnon conspirators not excluded. The last time I spoke to him he told me… ”but this is unofficial for now and there will be time to tell him.
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