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Majority in the balance
Uncertainty about the political and parliamentary strength of the Republican Party is also growing. The contagion that is spreading among their ranks, with at least 11 exponents positive results for the virus. Among Trump’s close associates, the last to hire Covid were campaign manager Bill Stepien and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, now hospitalized. Christie had helped the president prepare the first debate with Democratic rival Joe Biden. However, particularly serious consequences could have the positivity of ultra-conservative senators, Mike Lee, Thom Tillis and Ron Johnson. His prolonged absence could cost the Republican agenda dearly. In the Upper House, the party has 53 seats to 47 for Democrats and voting in person is required, as opposed to deputies who can vote remotely. The opportunity to approve Trump’s Supreme Court candidate Amy Coney Barrett, whom Republicans want to keep before the Nov. 3 election, in part to bolster pro-Republican positions on the court should she have to resolve disputes over election results, it may disappear. . Two moderate Republican senators, Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski, had already made it known that they wanted to “betray” Trump and not support the nomination.
Elections in the storm
The impact of the crisis on the elections and the White House will depend on the conditions of the president. The Trump campaign is in limbo, entrusted to his collaborators. The most dramatic scenarios loom, however, if Trump is incapacitated. In the face of the election, Republicans could replace the candidate, but with only a month left at the polls and with early voting already underway, the confusion would be enormous, and individual states would have to speak out on how to administer the ballots. If Trump remains a candidate and wins, but then becomes incapacitated or succumbs to disease, Congress or the courts may be required to decide on the validity of the voting results.
Doubts about a possible succession
The second dilemma concerns a possible temporary or permanent transfer of emergency power to the White House due to illness. The simplest, no-holds-barred case, even if excluded for now, is if Trump voluntarily hands over powers to Vice President Mike Pence for a limited period and then re-enters the Oval Office. Pence, now negative to the virus, is in any case the undisputed successor according to the law and the Constitution, but there are controversies about a new line of succession, never invoked. In case Pence is also out of the game, the law directs the Democratic Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, before the president pro tempore of the Senate, Republican Chuck Grassley, and members of the administration starting with the secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
However, some lawyers argue that the Constitution will prescribe only executive branch officials, namely Pompeo directly, as successor after vice president. Chaos would also arise in case of conflict between the president and the majority of the government over the need to transfer powers, even if only temporarily: the vice president and the majority of the cabinet can invoke the transfer of powers in the event of the incapacitation of the president, but he He can later go to Congress to return to command and, in case of conflict, only two-thirds of the votes of parliamentarians can reject him.
