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If the hypothesis of the blockade is not currently taken into account, the progressive closures of some commercial activities are not excluded. Faced with the exponential increase in infections, a new repression is looming.
Hypothesis one: localized closures
As reported by Il Mattino, Conte, Roberto Speranza and the Scientific Technical Committee (Cts) have established two fixed points. The first is to keep schools open by prioritizing public education. The second is to avoid a second blockade that would have a disastrous effect on economic activities.
At the same time, at Palazzo Chigi they know well that the second wave of the pandemic could grow again in the coming weeks and end up overwhelming the health system. With the opening of schools, contact tracing could flood and the number of infections could spiral out of control. The truth is that, in this phase, action will be taken through “surgical” closures, such as the establishment of territorial red zones and city closures. But without stopping to factories and offices. No one will be forced to stay home again.
Hypothesis two: mini-lock. Cinemas and gyms, then restaurants and barbers
However, should the number of cases increase drastically, as happened in Spain and France, the Government cannot exclude more restrictive measures. We could present the ban on gathering, with the limit of 6-10 people, as Vincenzo De Luca has already tried to do in Campania. The main consequence would be the cessation of private parties, marriages and family reunions.
Another step could be the introduction of a curfew at night, with the forced closure of commercial activities from 10pm, to avoid the effects of nightlife. “Everything will happen gradually, observing the Rt index day by day”, explain those who follow the dossier. Finally, the last dramatic step, the partial blocking of commercial activities. The first to close would be cinemas, theaters, gyms. Then it would be the turn of the beauty centers and hairdressers, followed by bars and restaurants. Lastly, shops, although smart work is likely to be mandatory in offices.
Lazio and Campania under special surveillance
For now, the file is on the government table. The Scientific Technical Committee intends to follow the progress of the epidemic after the opening of the schools. We will be able to understand what situation we will have in Italy only in a couple of weeks. There are two special supervised regions: Lazio and Campania. In the Center-South there has been a boom in asymptomatic people since August. However, the number of ICU admissions and hospitalizations also increased. Every day, the respective governors watch the regional bulletins with great anticipation. The fiduciary quarantine regime is at risk of collapse if the number of infected people escaping the swab increases in the coming weeks.
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