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The news that the president of the United States, Donald Trump, has tested positive for coronavirus, and has mild symptoms related to COVID-19, is generating several doubts and questions: in addition to his condition, about what could happen in the next days. Trump is 74 years old, overweight, has cholesterol problems and has had heart problems in the past: he is a risk subject, and it was since the 1981 attack on Ronald Reagan that the president of the United States was not subjected to a direct threat to theirs. lifetime. This time it is happening a month before the presidential elections. If Trump got better and healed in a few days, there would be no particular consequences. If, on the contrary, the situation were to precipitate, unimaginable scenarios would open up until a few days ago.
What happens if Trump gets seriously ill?
In the event that a president becomes aware that he will temporarily lose the ability to govern, there is a clause in the Constitution, within the 25th amendment, that allows him to sign a letter to hand over his powers to the vice president in the event that he cannot exercise them. . , and then recover them once they regain health. The clause has been applied three times in history: on July 13, 1985, when Ronald Reagan underwent an operation to remove the beginning of a tumor, and twice during the presidency of George W. Bush, when the then president He underwent so many colonoscopy exams under anesthesia. In all three cases, the vice presidents became presidents pro tempore, with powers identical to those of their leader.
The fourth section of the same amendment states that the president can be temporarily removed from office for the same reasons even without signing a letter, in the event of a sudden problem, as long as both the vice president and a majority of the members agree. government or other body designated by Congress. The fourth section has never been invoked until now. Once again, the president regains power as soon as he can.
If Trump develops severe symptoms, it will be important to protect the politicians in the line of succession should he die: Vice President Mike Pence, Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi and Speaker pro tempore of the Senate, Republican Senator Chuck Grassley (in the United States, the Senate is chaired by the vice president). None of them should have contact with the president or members of his staff, if any.
What if Trump dies (before the election)?
The regulation of the Republican Party provides that in the event of the death of the candidate – who in his duties as president would be replaced by the vice president – the leadership will hold a new national convention to decide the new candidate, similar to the one held every four years in the summer of the presidential elections. Given the enormously short time frame, the convention would certainly be held at a distance and resolved with a decision chosen by the party leaders.
The over-favorite for the nomination, in that case, would be current Vice President Mike Pence – but his appointment would not be automatic. Theoretically, the party could choose someone else. If Pence is elected, a candidate for vice president must be nominated. It has only happened once in American history that a large party had to change its candidate for vice president within weeks of the election.
“In 1972, the Democratic National Convention nominated Senator Thomas Eagleton of Missouri as its vice presidential candidate,” he says. Five thirty eight: ‘But Eagleton withdrew after it was learned that he had been electrocuted due to depression. The party leadership then chose former ambassador to France Sargent Shriver to fill the gap ”, 19 days before the elections.
In many states, however, it would be virtually impossible to change the names of the candidates on the ballot: not to mention that many parts of the United States already vote by mail and at physical polling stations, and several million are likely to vote. people have already cast their vote. your preference. In that case, your vote would automatically “carry over” to the new Republican Party candidate.
And anyway: can the elections be postponed?
Yes, but Trump can’t. The United States Constitution requires Congress to decide this, with a federal law that must be passed by both houses and signed into law by Trump (and that could be challenged in court). Since Democrats control the House and Republicans control the Senate, only an agreement between the two parties could postpone the vote.
But that would not be such an effective solution. The twentieth amendment to the Constitution establishes that the president’s term ends at 12 noon on January 20 of the last year of his term, without exception. And it requires large voters to meet in December to elect the president. In the event that no elections were held on that date, it would be up to Congress to decide who should hold the post of president pro tempore.
What happens if the president dies after winning the election but before taking office?
In theory, but it is a rather remote possibility, Trump could win the elections scheduled for November 3 but die a few days later, perhaps due to some complication: in that case his deputy would automatically become president, until the moment of installation of the new president. If Trump had been re-elected, the new president would be his deputy Mike Pence; otherwise it would be Joe Biden.
What will happen to the debates?
“The remaining two debates between Trump and his opponent Joe Biden will almost certainly be canceled or drastically changed,” writes the New York Times. The next one should have taken place on October 15, in 13 days: but unless there are big surprises, Trump will remain in quarantine. The independent committee organizing the debates has yet to clarify whether and how it intends to cancel or modify them, and will likely wait until the last minute to understand how Trump’s conditions will evolve.
Will the postponed discussions be recovered?
Theoretically yes, as long as the independent committee that organizes the televised comparisons decides: but this also depends on how Trump’s conditions will evolve, and how long he will remain, therefore, from his recovery until the November 3 vote.
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