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There are figures on the coronavirus since the beginning of the pandemic experts divide but also the Italians who day by day fail to quantify the real scope of the contagion. According to data from the Ministry of Health, as reported The messengerIn the period from May 25 to July 15, the epidemic would be limited to one million and 482 cases. However, according to the experts we are faced with a much higher number of infections.
For what reason? This is the way to look for antigens starting with false negatives. “It is possible that after some time – specify Fabrizio Pregliasco, virologist and hygiene researcher at the University of Milan – even in the series that I followed, there is a loss of positivity of the test. Very often then not everyone develops antibodies“Not only that, according to Pregliasco we must also consider that many they don’t tampons for fear of having to remain in quarantine.
Third factor to consider: the weather. “I know the research was conducted at a different time, of course we can probably find a greater number of people exposed contagion, “he warns Claudio Mastroianni, director of the infectious diseases clinic of the Umberto I Polyclinic in Rome and vice president of Simit (Italian Society for Infectious and Tropical Diseases). “The research,” he explains, “should certainly be done in smaller communities where there have been a high number of infected, and this could give us important information. Ultimately, it would be useful if it were regularly reprogrammed.”
Fourth factor, the audience of those who are subject to buffer: few and reticent. “Unfortunately, for seroprevalence, the problem of the data obtained is linked to the fact that the sample has not been reached. So there may be a possible underestimation, “he observes. Maurizio Sanguinetti, director of the department of laboratory and sciences of infectious diseases of the Gemelli Hospital Foundation in Rome.
“The initial sampling stratified by age, gender, region and social status rather than profession – remember Nino Cartabellotta, President of the Gimbe Foundation – it envisaged 150 thousand stratified people, each one representing a stratum, but as at that time there was the problem that those who tested positive were not offered a tampon, only about half of the population agreed to participate. It is evident that today, taking into account that the infection is increasing, it is probable that the number of immunized people is significantly higher than that documented by the survey 4 months ago ”.
According to experts the the underestimation is between 10 and 20%. Second Mauro Pistello, Professor of Microbiology and Clinical Microbiology at the University of Pisa and Vice President of the Italian Society of Microbiology, the main reasons why official data are underestimated “depend on the fact that are people who have developed a very mild infection, so they had no symptoms: we have shown, however, that the virus exists, an infection has been found, but they have not developed antibodies. There is also a higher proportion of cases that have developed antibodies, for example two weeks after infection, but are then retested after two or three months have no more antibodies. Therefore, it is clear that not all these people have been counted in the total official data ”, he concludes.
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