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On Sunday, September 27, a referendum will be held in Switzerland to decide whether to maintain or renegotiate an agreement with the European Union that provides for the free movement of European citizens in Switzerland, in force since 2002. The question is only one of the five that were asked. They will: the other four involve school fees and protection from wolves, but it is by far the most talked about, especially because if it is successful it will have potentially unpredictable consequences, far beyond migratory flows. “The relationship between the European Union and Switzerland would be pulverized,” political scientist Stefanie Walter told NPR.
The referendum was proposed by the Central Democratic Union – the right-wing party that controls the largest number of seats in the National Council, the Swiss lower house – which for many years has insisted on the need to impose quotas on European citizens of their choice. live and work in Switzerland. «Migrants change our culture. Squares, trains and streets become less safe: in addition, half of the welfare beneficiaries are foreigners ”, reads the website of the electoral commission for Sí.
Since the free movement of people between the European Union and Switzerland was approved, the Swiss population has also increased thanks to the arrival of around one million migrants. Of these, around 750,000 come from European states. More than 450,000 Swiss, on the other hand, habitually reside in other European countries.
Supporters of No, including the federal council – that is, the government and parliament – argue that free movement has also had positive effects for the Swiss, and that limiting it would be a mistake and potential harm for Swiss companies. more competitive, for example, those in the pharmaceutical sector (which each year attract many skilled workers from other parts of Europe).
But in the event of a Yes victory, the possible damage to the Swiss economy could be much greater. The treaty regulating free movement with the EU is linked to six other treaties negotiated in 2000 and approved by a large majority in a referendum. The treaties in question are known as Bilateral I and regulate various aspects of the relationship with the European Union, from agriculture to transport through research and trade. All seven treaties have the so-called “guillotine clause”: if even one is unilaterally repealed, the others expire.
The victory of the Yes, therefore, would dismantle the agreements that currently allow Switzerland to access the European common market and effectively have a system of open borders with neighboring states. It would be a big problem for a country that exports almost half of its goods to the European Union, where more than 60 percent of imports come from.
If the Swiss decide to abolish the free movement of people with the European Union, the Federal Council would have one year to negotiate it. During that time, as political scientist Sean Mueller points out on the London School of Economics blog, the European Union could unilaterally decide to suspend other treaties with Switzerland in order to put even more pressure on it during negotiations, such as the Schengen negotiations – of which Switzerland is a party, Although it is not a member of the EU, nor of the Erasmus + university exchange program.
The European Union, however, “believes that Switzerland already has one of the best possible deals for a country outside the Union, and is not willing to give in on many fronts, especially during the Brexit negotiations,” explains Walter.
For now, polls give a clear advantage to No: according to a recent poll cited by Reuters63% of the people contacted support No, while only 35% would be in favor of the abolition of the free movement of people.
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