Coronavirus, problem: “Progressive worsening in the last 8 weeks. Increase in 10 regions”



[ad_1]

Rome, September 25, 2020 – Italy sees increase cases of Coronavirus by the eighth week consecutive. This is the disturbing image presented in the usual ISS weekly newsletter and the Ministry of Health, which recommends keeping your distance. The number of positives has increased, compared to the previous week, in ten Regions. However, the follow-up for the week of September 14-20 does not report the long-awaited data on infections at school, in fact: now still not possible to evaluate the impact that the opening of classes in the country: “will be assessable from next 2-3 weeks “. Instead of the September 3-16 follow-up, it turns out that the calculated RT in symptomatic cases is 0.95, below 1 in its mean value for the second consecutive week.

Coronavirus Italy, the newsletter of September 25. Covid data and table

Increase in cases in 10 regions

In the week under review, cases increased in ten autonomous regions and provinces. The ISS cautions that the increase cannot be attributed solely to an increase in cases imported from abroad or from other regions, nor to an increase in detection activity. Most of the reported cases, that is, 84.2%, it is contracted in the national territory, with a slight decrease in imported cases from abroad (8% of new cases diagnosed this week compared to 10.8% the previous week) and also in imported cases from another Region / AP (3.3% in the current week compared to to 5.5% the week before). Diagnostics: 27.6% with detection activities and 35.8% with contact tracing.

For eight weeks, getting worse

The ISS observes a slow and progressive worsening of the epidemic in Italy for eight weeks, an aspect that is reflected in a greater burden on health services. The trend is common to many European countries, but in Italy it is more contained for now. But the risk of a rapid epidemic recovery due to excessive relaxation of measures should not be underestimated.

School, evaluation after 2-3 weeks

In the newsletter there is still no talk of school: “It is not possible to evaluate, at the moment, the impact that the opening of schools in Italy will have on the advance of the epidemic. It is believed that this aspect will be evaluable from the next 2-3 weeks.” Precisely because of its importance, it is emphasized that “the reopening of schools continues to be one of the elements to be closely monitored”. On the first cases detected in high schools, Iss writes: “In the week in question, no transmission of the virus was found in the school environment, although numerous sporadic cases were identified in conjunction with the reopening of schools. to which the implemented measures (screening, daily temperature detection, procedures for the management of suspected symptomatic cases in the school environment) contributed to the rapid identification and diagnosis of cases. Numerous epidemiological investigations are underway and quarantine procedures where planned. “

Rt equal to 0.95

The TR calculated on symptomatic cases in the period 3-16 September 2020 is equal to 0.95, below 1 in its mean value. It is the second week in a row, but the Higher Institute of Health is holding back the enthusiasm: “However, we must interpret with caution the national transmission rate at this particular point in the epidemic. In fact, Rt calculated on symptomatic cases, while remaining the most reliable indicator at the regional level and comparable in time to monitor transmissibility, could underestimate the actual transmission of the virus nationwide. Therefore, the national TR must always be interpreted also taking into account the incidence figure. “The age of the newly infected has stabilized: this week the median age remains stable at 41 years.

Intensive care is on the rise

The occupancy rate for medical beds nationwide increased from 4% to 5%, while the occupancy rate for hospital beds in intensive care 2% to 3%, with values ​​higher than 10% in some regions, writes the ISS in the weekly bulletin, which warns: well there are still no signs of overload of health services, the observed trend could be reflected in a short time in greater commitment.

Almost 3,000 active shoots

In Italy they have been registered 2868 active shoots, of which 832 new and the increase for the eighth consecutive week. By outbreak we mean 2 or more positive cases connected to each other (in the previous one there were 2397 active outbreaks of which 698 new ones).

[ad_2]