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In the trend of the epidemic curve, experts are no longer worried about Lombardy. How it arises from the data processed by Hume Foundation, is in particular spice the Italian city that runs the risk of causing an outbreak of difficult extinction. The number of contagion observed from the beginning of the epidemic to today show it: the epidemic curve of La Spezia has a peak in April and the second in September. If we then observe the fortnightly incidence of new cases corrected for diagnostic capacity, in the period from 10 to 23 September for every 100 thousand inhabitants, La Spezia reached 635. Genoa instead of 98.7. The lowest figure refers to Crotone with 0.4. Milan touches 44.3, while Rome stands at 33.8.
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I STUDY
The experts of the Hume Foundation then calculate that the height of the two peaks of the infections of the Ligurian city is the same in both cases, as well as the speed of the infection is also comparable. However, there is no need to be sure, even in Genoa, even if in this case the number of reported infections is less than 1/6 compared to those found in nearby La Spezia. Regarding the diagnostic capacity, however, if Liguria is at 0.48, Calabria is again on the opposite side and reaches 2.73. Lazio occupies a median position among the regions with 1.35, while the region most affected and that has paid for most of the epidemic in terms of deaths and sick people, Lombardy, reaches 0.76.
And now Liguria is the first Italian region to enter the Swiss blacklist. Starting next Monday, in fact, Ligurians who want to reach Swiss countries will have to take into account 10 days of quarantine. In reality, the number of Sars Cov 2 infections is not high at all: in total 3,029 positives have been reported throughout the region and one death in La Spezia. To alarm the Swiss authorities, however, the progressive increase in cases. Yesterday 73 were found. Doctors from Asl 3 in Genoa identified 39 new positives. However, 19 others were identified in La Spezia. The other cases are in Imperia (12 cases), Savona (21).
THE LIGURIA REACTION
The decision of Switzerland, which has equalized the risk of Liguria to countries such as Great Britain, Portugal, Belgium – also present on the black list, in addition to Denmark, Ireland, Iceland, Slovenia, Hungary and Morocco, to the territories of Britain and the Lands of Upper and Lower Austria – obviously he did not like the Region led by Giovanni Toti, according to whom, in fact, “it is unbalanced to consider the whole of Liguria as a homogeneous situation”.
DIPLOMATIC CASE
Meanwhile, a diplomatic problem has arisen. The Swiss Consul General in Italy and, for information, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Luigi Di Maio, were thus handed over a documentation from the health agency of the Liguria Region (Alisa) with the data of the Ligurian infections and the request to possibly limit prescriptions. only to the most affected areas. In reality, the Swiss decision is based on a calculation established by the Swiss Public Health: in the event that in a region there are more than 60 infections per 100,000 inhabitants in 14 days, strict security measures are taken.
Applying this indicator to the data from the Ligurian epidemic, the threshold indicated corresponds to an average of 70 cases per day. But, as the Region points out, the exceeding of the threshold is entirely attributable to the cluster that was created in La Spezia. The cases identified in the rest of Liguria, on the other hand, are below the indicated parameter and do not justify the restrictive measures imposed by neighboring Switzerland.
Graziella Melina
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Last updated: 06:53
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