Coronavirus, the second wave hits the UK. Blocking or not, will Johnson be able to avoid the same mistakes?



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LONDON – Yesterday, 40 deaths and 6,634 new cases of coronavirus in one day, the highest number in 24 hours for the United Kingdom. It is also the record since the peak of the pandemic last spring. Is it, therefore, the dramatic déjà vu of the country that has suffered the highest number of deaths in Europe – 42 thousand, at least according to the recently revised downward official estimates – during the first wave of Covid19?


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It’s the dilemma they now face Boris johnson and a whole country. After gross neglect and delays in February and March, when everything stayed open for weeks as trucks full of coffins drove away from Bergamo, now the Johnson administration doesn’t want to make the same mistake again. But the restrictive measures announced on television two days ago by the premier arouse controversy, on both sides of the “hawks” and “doves” in the fight against Covid19.

The number of tests

First of all: 6,634 new infections in a day is a lot, but it is also true that at the moment the UK processes a large number of swabs per day, more than 230 thousand, more than double that of Italy for comparison, and by the end October counts. to reach 500 thousand in 24 hours. At the start of the pandemic, London instead had a sensational testing deficit, around 10,000 a day, while spikes of 100,000 new infections a day raged under the trail, according to current estimates by medical authorities.

The tracking app

Therefore, the UK has much more control over the pandemic today than it did a few months ago. Not only that: since yesterday, masks are – finally – mandatory for all workers and customers of bars, pubs and restaurants, which until now were theoretically only in retail stores. Also yesterday, finally, an anti-covid app, in the style of “Immuni”, was launched in Italy, after many sensational delays and setbacks (the previous version went crazy in big cities): this instead, the “Nhs Covid -19 “It seems to be working very well so far. Ultimately, this time it seems that the conditions are in place so that the United Kingdom can keep the virus under control in the coming months – “about six”, according to Johnson – and “survive the winter.”


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Coronavirus in the world, United Kingdom: from Thursday Johnson ready to close pubs and restaurants at 10 pm

Esperti: Serves a “circuit breaker”

But criticism is not lacking. Given the spiral of new infections, according to experts in the Johnson government, first and foremost the senior medical officer Chris whitty and the scientist sir Patrick Vallance, at this point another lockdown would have been necessary: ​​not a total shutdown like the one announced on March 23 by Johnson on television, but what in the jargon is called a “circuit break”, or “break the circuit” of new infections with non-essential pubs, restaurants and shops closing for two weeks, straddling the usual one-week school suspension in October. According to them, without a “circuit break”, 50,000 new cases a day are at risk since mid-October, as the spiral of contagion would already be out of control, and it would already be seen in some areas of the north and center of England. where more than 10 million people will not be able to socialize for a few weeks with people who do not belong to their own family or “bubble”.


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Economic consequences

The prime minister did not listen to them, for two reasons: first, the economy. On the eve of Brexit, which will materialize on December 31 with unknown consequences, the United Kingdom cannot afford another blockade, even if it is limited. It would be the coup de grace for the already shabby restaurant and hotel industry to see the head of the Premier Inn hotel chain announce 6,000 layoffs in the coming months. In addition, Whitty and Vallance at the beginning of the pandemic had told the nation several times that in the vast majority of cases it was a flu-like illness, also not to trigger panic, but certainly minimizing the severity of Covid. , publicly. It is clear that now they cannot make the same superficial mistakes, and that is why the anti-Covid measures announced two days ago by Johnson on television are not enough.

The capriole: smart work no, yes, actually

In fact, these are not draconian rules. The real news was another government twist on smart work: Until a few weeks ago, the government’s propaganda machine was all about “getting out, eating, and going back to work at the office,” with only August restaurants offering 50% discounts on the framework of the “Eat Out to Help Out” program launched by the Minister of Finance Rishi Sunak reactivate catering and consumption. Now, however, the prime minister has once again urged the British to “work from home when possible”, which will deal a new blow to the induced City and the center of British cities. Otherwise, Johnson has succumbed to pressure from Sunak and the other “hawks” to impose the minimum of restrictions in order to protect the economy, namely: curfew in pubs and restaurants at 10 pm and service table mandatory, so like the masks.

The new front: the skeptics

But now another front has been born, that of the “skeptics”: yesterday 42 conservative rebel MPs (a number that would override Johnson’s vast majority in the House of Commons) signed a bill for Parliament to decide on the ‘toughening of anti-coronavirus measures. Because for these deputies, unlike the executive’s medical and scientific experts, these measures go too far, sink the already torn economy and then go against the “noble values” of hard and pure conservatism, without generous state aid or impositions . from above, as has happened in recent months based on the decisions of Johnson and Sunak. Also, as the guardianSince June there have been up to 10,000 excess deaths in British homes. A sign that resistance to going to the doctor or hospital for other diseases (causing fear of Covid) is making aanother massacre of almost the same level. Among the causes also deconditioning “, that is, the poor physical exercise of the elderly inbeginning of the pandemic.

Johnson’s hands tied

In short, passing a second lockdown, or simply tightening anti-covid measures in the country, will not be easy for Johnson from today. And it was no longer because of Brexit. Closing the country at the same time as an exit from the EU that will undoubtedly cause a structural shock – it is not yet known to what extent, it will depend on the ongoing negotiations with the EU – could trigger an exceptionally negative and potentially catastrophic situation. At that point, Boris would really start to falter. And the premier already seems to have his hands tied.


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