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Trump’s decision to nominate a candidate for the Supreme Court less than 40 days before the election could be one of the riskiest of his presidency and, at the same time, one of those destined to bear the most fruit.
Trump’s world is divided into losers and winners: Trump would become a loser in his own eyes if he did not seize the incredible opportunity presented to him to do his conservative base a favor and give his re-election campaign a boost. That is why no one questioned that he would do what he will do tomorrow: appoint an ultra-conservative judge in place of the liberal Ruth Bader Gisburg to the US Supreme Court.
Trump’s bet is that this nomination will galvanize new voters and help him win in November. In this way he would win four years in the White House: but at what cost? If Trump acts without respect for his opponents, in the future they too will play the same way: whoever wins takes all, without respecting the rules, written and unwritten, of democracy.
The upshot is that cooperation between the two sides could cease entirely, even in the face of crises like the coronavirus: and radicals on both sides would end up pursuing unilateral policies, sending concepts like compromise and consensus to the loft.
The real point is not whether or not Trump has the right to appoint the vacant Supreme Court justice: he has the right, he sanctions the constitution. What is wrong is the willingness to replace the most liberal voice of the highest American court with an ultra-conservative voice, the principle behind this choice: that it is not important to find a way to hold together the different souls that make up the American Experiment. If a conservative judge, like Kavanaugh, Thomas or Gorsuch, had left the court last week for whatever reason, Trump would not be putting the same effort that he is doing now in the rapid search for a successor.
Those who oppose Trump’s decision insist that the composition of the Supreme Court should not be the result of minority decisions: and instead, it would be with the election of Trump. This president, we must not forget, in the last elections lost the popular vote: more people voted for his opponent than for him. He is in the White House thanks to the mechanisms of the electoral law. But he does not feel limited by this and continues, telling his followers that he will choose a woman and keeping expectations high on the name. In this way, Trump is once again in control of the information circle: in the United States they no longer talk about his disastrous handling of the coronavirus crisis, but only about the Supreme Court.
Democrats don’t have many ways to block the nomination – few expect a handful of sensible Republican senators to stop the entire process. The Republican party has 53 seats in the Senate, compared to 47 for the Democrats. 51 votes are required to pass the appointment – a minimal difference, which creates incredible pressure on individuals. How many could support him by putting the general interest of the United States before the short-term interest of his party?
Ultimately, the option to fill the Supreme Court with Conservatives could also prove detrimental to Republicans, pushing those who believe that this body should remain balanced at the polls. A Huffington Post / You Gov poll conducted after Ginsburg’s death says 49% of American voters who signed up for the November vote would like the next president to elect a Supreme Court, compared to 36% who believe that it depends on Trump.
Another Morning Consult / Politico poll shows that the election will influence “in a very important way” the vote of 60% of voters who identify as Democrats, but only 54% of those who identify as Republicans. In other words, Trump’s decision will motivate his opponents more than his followers.
This is also demonstrated by the fact that in the hours after Judge Ginsburg’s death, the Democratic Party website was flooded with donations – $ 100,000 a minute, according to the New York Times. In total, in just under a week, Democrats raised nearly $ 200 million.
Therefore, anger and passion could push many people to the polls: a “Blue Wave” similar to the one that in 2018 took control of the Chamber of Deputies from the Republicans. Among Democratic politicians there are those who talk about winning the White House race, then the Senate race and finally changing the law to increase the number of justices on the Supreme Court, so that Biden – if he wins – can rebalance the court. But that would only divide him further: This is precisely what makes Trump’s decision at this stage so important. This is an election that has the potential to influence America’s destiny for a very long future.
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