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In recent days, 11,298 new cases of coronavirus infection have been registered in Italy, 15 percent more than the previous week. It is a figure that rises again after, in the last weekly survey, they had fallen for the first time in eight weeks. However, these numbers are still drastically lower than those of several other large European countries, such as France, Spain and the United Kingdom: the first two, in the last week, even had unique days in which they registered more cases than those verified. generally in the last week in Italy.
More worryingly, deaths in the past seven days rose sharply from the previous week, by 73 percent, reaching a peak not seen since June. Compared to August, deaths appear to be increasing in September. In these first seven months of the epidemic in Europe we have learned that deaths tend to increase a few weeks after infections: therefore, it will be necessary to look carefully at the data over the next several weeks to understand what kind of trend is underway.
Regarding the situation of hospitals, the number of hospitalized patients continues to increase, and with an apparently stable trend. In fact, the situation in intensive care is back to mid-June, after being much emptier during the summer. On the other hand, the number of people hospitalized in the other wards is proportionally lower than in June: probably because, as has been observed, the mean age of those infected has decreased and, therefore, also the overall severity of the clinical pictures.
The curve of new infections discovered each week with respect to the inhabitants follows a similar trend to that of infections in absolute numbers, obviously: in recent days they were 18.8 per 100 thousand people (France, to make a comparison, has introduced new restrictions in areas greater than 150).
Lombardy, by far the Italian region most affected by the coronavirus epidemic, registered a decrease in new cases for the third consecutive week: and the news is that for the first time it is not the first region in terms of the number of infections. surpassed by Lazio, which for its part registered an increase of 27 percent compared to the previous week. Campania, with 1,370 cases in the last seven days, is the third region with the most infections this week and has also registered a strong increase.
One fact worth keeping an eye on, to get an idea of how much the spread of infections is under control, is to compare the number of new positives with that of people tested with the swab. The fewer cases we discover for every 100 people tested, the more confident we are that we are not missing too many infections. Applying a weekly moving average to the daily data, we observe that as of August we are discovering more and more positives, with the same number of swabs performed: now we are more or less three for every 100 people analyzed, which in any case is less than half compared to April. when testing capacity was more limited.
In the last seven days there has been a return to an increase in the number of tampons, after they had gone down last week. It is the all-time high since the start of the epidemic, and we are approaching an average of 100,000 tampons a day – plans for the fall, however, are to increase them even more, probably double them.
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