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MEDIUM TERM TREND until SEPTEMBER 27 – The irruption of quite cold air for the period, of arctic maritime origin, has already been confirmed, which from Greenland will flow towards the central Mediterranean and Italy next weekend. Here is explained theextensive negative geopotential anomaly showing the ECMWF model for the last days of September. The baric gap in the heart of Europe will have a difficult time healing, with a momentary return of the Western anticyclone expected only in the last days of the month, at least in Western Europe and most of the Mediterranean.
TMIDDLE-LONG TERM ENDANCE SEPTEMBER 28 – OCTOBER 4 – As anticipated, in the last days of September we will be able to attend a momentary return of the anticyclone in western Europe and part of the Mediterranean. However, it would be an ephemeral parenthesis, since in the first days of October we were able to witness the descent of a new arctic-maritime air core, capable once again of targeting central Europe and also our country, as thenegative baric anomaly that would extend in a meridian direction from Iceland to the Alpine arc, with the largest anomalies centered in the British Isles.
LONG TERM TREND 4-11 OCTOBER – Given the latest update to the ECMWF model, the first ten days of October should not see any particular anticyclonic returns in Europe and the Mediterranean. Rather, there is still a moderate negative anomaly in Western Europe, it once again focused on the British Isles, which would herald a not particularly stable period in Italy. Our country would be exposed to humid ocean currents.
LONG TERM TREND 12-18 OCTOBER – The latest updates to the model do not highlight any particular anomalies in the European sector in the second ten days of October. The absence of obvious forcing would suggest a a period of medium-high pressure on the Mediterranean sector, with the rainy Atlantic disturbances that could generally flow north of the Alps.
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