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This is supported by a mathematical model developed by two Italian researchers, Giacomo Cacciapaglia and Francesco Sannino, whose results have been published in the journal “Scientific Reports”
The next peak of the coronavirus pandemic in Italy and, more generally, on the European continent could occur between October and November. With the support of the research work of two Italian experts, namely Giacomo Cacciapaglia, who works at the Institut de Physique des 2 Infinis, in Villeurbanne in France, and Francesco Sannino, researcher at the University of Southern Denmark, in Odense. Both managed to develop a useful mathematical model to try to understand, from the data collected, how the pandemic could evolve in the coming weeks. The results of their study were published in the journal Scientific Reports.
A mathematical model
deepening
Coronavirus in Italy and in the world: the latest news today, September 23
The results obtained from the mathematical model, in which Corentin Cot also participated, suggested to the experts that a second wave is indeed possible in Europe in a time frame foreseen between July 2020, partly what happened this summer, and January 2021. It was also found that the precise timing of spikes in infection rates for each country could be controlled by appropriate measures, such as social distancing, local outbreak control, and border control measures. The researchers, using data from the first wave, but allowing a 15% variation in infection rates, were able to show that the timing of the second wave peaks may depend on infection rates, with faster peaks predicted for countries. whose infection rates are higher.
Preventive measures
According to experts, social distancing measures coupled with responsible individual behavior, if implemented early, could have a strong effect on the period in which the spikes occur. Furthermore, taking into account the current situation in Europe, where countries such as Belgium, Bosnia, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Greece, the Netherlands, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain showed the start of a second wave in early August, the authors of the The study created a video simulation of when a second wave is likely to peak in each European country.
Counteracting the pandemic waves
According to the results proposed by this model, in Italy the possible new peak, estimated at the end of October and November, could reach a similar entity to the one that has already occurred in the past, at least in terms of new cases. The model, which the researchers specified can be easily adapted as new data becomes available, could now become a useful tool for various governments, financial markets, industry, and individuals to prepare in advance for the potential wave and possibly counter the wave. threat of recurring pandemic waves.
