Covid cases in Italy, Sileri: “There will be an increase, but controlled”



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«In February-March, the virus entered the nursing homes violently. Today the virus does not enter the RSA because there are protocols. This also happens in hospitals. I am much more concerned with Sunday meals with family and dinners with friends.»Declared the Deputy Minister of Health, Pierpaolo Sileri, in an interview with InBlu Radio, the Catholic radio station of the CEI.

The second wave

“When we talk about the second wave – continued Sileri – panic is triggered. There The second wave that we will experience around the world will hardly be like that of February and March. because it would mean not wearing the mask, not washing your hands and being around. And then we have tampon surveillance today. That is why it is difficult for me to think that today we could find ourselves in the same situation as in February and March when the virus attacked us from behind»The deputy minister explained.
The epidemiological surveillance system in Italy is also detecting asymptomatic infections, so there is confidence in be able to contain a relative increase cases, as in fact it has been happening since August. The quick buffers, the drive-in systems, the expansion of the territorial network for now has ensured that the country is delaying the reopening (even if the school data will arrive at the beginning of October). Whereas in the winter phase, compared to the ability of the system to intercept positives, there was talk of 1 to 10 (one positive intercepted out of 10 actually present), we can now reasonably believe that we will “find” the virus ( approximately 4 people out of 10 according to ISPI estimates), thanks to outbreak monitoring and generalized screening.

The risk of Sunday lunch

For this Sileri referred to nursing homes: hospitals and nursing homes are the two most controlled areas today. When it comes to concern related to Family lunches suppose the possibility that, from asymptomatic and young people, the virus in a family context can reach the weakest subjects (elderly-grandparents). The same concern was voiced last week by scientist Ilaria Capua. The data also shows that when contagion accelerates, even the most protected groups are slowly at risk. In all countries with a very marked increase in positives, even the oldest age groups eventually got involved (we talked about it who). In addition, meeting with the family to eat together means being together in one. closed environment, perhaps poorly ventilated and without masks: one of the highest risk areas. If we then consider that young people are usually asymptomatic, the degree of danger faced by an older person in such a context arises.

Increase in expected cases

«The circulation of the virus will increase, this is undeniable. The cases of contagion will continue to increase but they will do so gradually. They will increase with growth controlled by buffers and vigilance. There will be many outbreaks and there will also be an overlap with flu syndromes. But we don’t have to worry. The risk will never be zero, but controlled, ”the vice minister also said.
The increase in infections is expected and we are prepared to deal with it. Cases in Europe are on the rise and have generally already surpassed those of the first wave. In all countries facing a second wave, however, in the case of deaths, the figure is usually considerably lower than the figures for February to April.At the time. Obviously this should not lower our guard: it is only in September, the simultaneous presence of influenza and Covid-19 indoors in winter is a considerable risk. The important thing is not to lose the “contact with the epidemic”, then trace the contacts and positives to isolate them and protect the elderly.

Rapid tests across Europe

Finally Sileri focuses on another aspect related to Europe: “The risk of import cases from France is very high. A broader strategy would be needed, not only from Italy to France but from a vision of the whole of Europe to give definite lines (Minister Speranza has just signed an ordinance that imposes a mandatory buffer on those who return from some areas of France). Today it is France, but tomorrow the cases will rise in Germany and then in England. Until we have a vaccine, this is what to wait for. We could do some tests at the airport even if the negative swab doesn’t reduce the risk to zero. The alternative is to get a swab 2-3 days before departure ». Regarding the new tests (increasingly faster and more precise) coming to the market, she stated: “Salivary tests can allow quick and reliable diagnoses. The tampon is surely the most reliable, but it is also more invasive and less fast. I hope that saliva tests will be widely used before the end of the month throughout Italy.».

September 22, 2020 (change September 22, 2020 | 18:05)

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