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Florence, September 20, 2020 – I put candidates for president of Tuscany they gasped after an electoral campaign unique in the 50-year history of the regional administration. In the summer, after the pandemic emergency. But the messages are not over. And the latest strategies are detailed. The candidates are also in the field. Public silence was respected, but private chats continued. “Vote for me because …”, “We need your support”, “Choose your side”: an avalanche of WhatsApp.
Simulations and predictions are intertwined. It is the parties that try to focus on possible hypotheses. There are two main variables references: split voting and participation. The ability to vote for a presidential candidate and an unrelated list is considered a “niche”, almost by experts. Voting separately is done by those who are well informed and know that they are not wrong on the ballot. The attendance is seen with more interest. A drop could benefit, it is said, the center-right if the elderly population (fearful of the contagion of Covid) traditionally linked to the center-left stayed at home. But we must also see where we will vote more or less. The schools of Florence, Empoli, Prato and Livorno are fundamental: here the victory of a candidate for the presidency is formed.
The participation it fell in Tuscany from 95.9% in 1970 to 48.28% in 2015, the lowest figure of all electoral rounds, the first time with less than half of the voters. In 2005 the threshold had dropped to 71.4%, it was the first time that the direct election of the chairman of the board. With the regional in March 2010, the bar dropped even further, a trend common to all of Italy. The voters summoned in Tuscany to the polls were 3,009,691, 1,827,266 go there, 60.71%, the third last among the thirteen regions to vote, and elect 55 councilors. On May 31, 2015, participation fell again, for the first time below half of graduates: 48.28%. Voters called to the polls were 2,985,690, but only 1,441,504 go to the polls.
With the future President of the Region, the Tuscans will also elect the councilors that will make up the regional assembly: forty in total (41 with the president of the council who is an integral part of it), the same number as in 2015, fifteen less than in 2010 and twenty-five fewer than in 2005. For the winning coalition there is a variable majority premium: of forty seats, it cannot have less than 23 but not more than 26.
Will Giani or Ceccardi get more than 45% of the vote? Then the coalition that supports them will be entitled to at least 24 seats (60 percent of the 40 at stake). If the president-elect collects between 40% and 45% of the votes, the coalition that supports him will have the right to 23 to 26 seats: if he did not collect them with the votes, he will be awarded the majority prize. If no candidate wins at least 40 percent in the first round (and will go to the polls, a hypothesis that seems rather difficult), 23 seats will be allocated to the winning candidate’s coalition. In this way, the president-elect will be ‘armored’: he will always be able to count on a sufficient majority to govern.
Today we vote Therefore: Susanna Ceccardi, a center-right candidate, will vote in the municipality of Cascina as well as Irene Galletti, who is running for the M5. Eugenio Giani, center-left candidate, will vote in Sesto Fiorentino (Florence). Tommaso Fattori, candidate from Tuscany, will vote in Florence for the left. Tiziana Vigni, who runs with the 3V Movement, will vote in the municipality of San Gimignano. Marco Barzanti, PCI candidate, will vote in Follonica. Salvatore Catello for the Communist Party is also on track for the presidency of Tuscany.
In the polling stations everything is going well despite the desertions in the last few hours. In Florence, 730 tellers and 110 presidents were replaced. Sanitized sections. Everything is ready.
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