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The first data on participation on voting day on constitutional referendum and regional. At 12 o’clock – according to data not yet definitive published by the Ministry of the Interior – 12.35% of voters went to the polls (the figure refers to 7,188 municipalities out of 7,903). The region with the highest participation is Trentino Alto Adige, with 16.25 percent. There Sicily, with 6.11%, the one with the lowest participation. Regarding the regional ones, the average participation of the regions called to renew the local government is 12.55%, in line with the referendum. In summary, no significant differences are observed.
This first participation figure is difficult to interpret. In this vote, as is known, it rains l’incognita-coronavirus, which could discourage many voters from exercising their right to vote (and the flight, or rather the lack of response, from tellers and voting officers is there to prove it). Therefore, it is possible that Covid-19 has a role in this data, which seems quite low. But you also have to consider that unlike previous consultations, the polls will also be open on Monday until 3:00 p.m. 2016 constitutional referendum that swept Matteo renziHowever, when the vote was only on Sunday, at 12 noon the turnout was 18.4 percent.
In short, at the moment low participation but not even “clandestine”. You will have more robust indications with the data that arrives at night. According to pollsters and analysts, a high turnout should favor the “No” in the referendum, although in any case the victory of the “Yes” seems evident. The interpretation of participation data for regional teams is more nuanced, where in theory a high participation could favor government forces, Pd and M5, especially in Tuscany.
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