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It’s a bit like our by-elections, those in which in the United States a coupon is made to the current president. But as in the United States, where no president has resigned even with adverse electoral results, it is highly unlikely that after tomorrow’s vote, both for the regions and for the referendum, there will be a shock so strong as to overthrow the Prime Minister. Regional elections 2020: the guide Referendum: the guide El Conte II has the support of the Quirinal and the European Union and, despite a certain political weakness, still boasts of its numerical strength in parliament that should protect it from possible storms. At most, a reorganization will take place. Conte also enjoys a favorable position that in politics has always ensured a long life for everyone: he has no real alternative, at least for the moment. Elections are not an alternative, because no MP will be willing to be sent home prematurely, especially if the YES passes, an elusive government of broad deals, Draghi or not Draghi, which finds more admirers at the corporate level is not an alternative. and the media that among the party secretaries who must bear the burden, certainly unpopular. There is no alternative because the government has been able to cling to the management of the Coronavirus emergency and because it has benefited from an opposition that …
They are a bit ours midterm elections, those in which in the United States a coupon is made to the current president. But as in the US, where no president has ever resigned even with adverse election results, it is a lot unlikely that after tomorrow’s vote, both for the regions and for the referendum, there will be a shock so strong that it will topple the prime minister.
Regional elections 2020: the guide
Referendum: the guide
the Count II benefits from the support of Quirinal and the European Union, and despite a certain political weakness, still has its own numerical strength in parliament that should protect it from possible storms. At best, there will be a shakeup. Conte also enjoys a favorable position that in politics has always ensured a long life for everyone: he has no real alternative, at least for the moment. Elections are not an alternative, because no parliamentarian will be willing to be sent home prematurely, especially if the AND, an elusive government of broad understanding, draghi or non-draghi, which finds more admirers at the business and media level than among party secretaries who should bear its weight, certainly unpopular, is not an alternative.
There is no alternative because the government was skillful stick with emergency management Coronavirus and because it has benefited from an opposition that a real alternative has not thought to build, or has failed to do. Committed to playing an internal derby to redesign power hierarchies. The only possibility of a shake-up could be from the combination of a disastrous regional result coupled with a victory for the NO, grillino brand. But it is a remote combination, due to the improbability of the elusive 7-0 evoked by Salvini to materialize at the same time together with the defeat of the IS. Between the two, it is the latter that has the best chance of succeeding. The 7-0 really takes a back seat.
However, the problem remains a government that in one way or another remains weak, because it rests on two dancing architraves: the Cinquestelle and its perennial self-war, and a Democratic Party in the grip of the friendly fire of infighting. Tomorrow’s results may not quell the internal problems of the executive’s two majority shareholders and, in fact, aggravate their contours. It is not a good viaticum for an executive preparing to launch the biggest economic maneuver since the war, planned in part with billions of non-repayable, especially with loans that we will have to repay. The first sketches of the Recovery found Those known until now – from the contributions for the olive milling to the reconstruction of the Farnesina façade – do not always leave hope.
The regionals are the revenge of those of January, which Salvini they didn’t go well: debacle in Emilia Romagna and victory for one of their internal competitors in Calabria (Santelli, Forza Italia). The Captain, therefore, risks a lot, also because his antagonists could also win tomorrow: Zaia in Veneto and Meloni’s candidates in Puglia and Marche. Salvini has only one way to overcome the impasse: to win in Tuscany. In the negotiations for the division of the regions, Salvini tried to sneak out of Tuscany, believing he was lost at first, but then his candidate, Susanna Ceccardi, returned to the top. Also because of the opponent’s weakness.
Nicola Zingaretti he could go down in the history of the left as the secretary who in the course of his mandate lost three of the four red regions (Umbria, Marche and Tuscany). A filotto against whom he could hardly resist the Nazarene one more day. Zingaretti smelled danger and began to say, for example in Tuscany, that “the candidate has been identified at the regional level.” But if it ended really badly, he would have few excuses to make. On their shoulders would weigh not only the choice of candidates not on par, but also a weak leadership regarding the possibility of forging decisive alliances. If he resigned Monday night, it would open the way for a regency (Orlando favored) and then Congress. There are many suitors and they have not expected anything else for a long time: Bonaccini, Gori and Orlando himself on pole.
The chancellor was very intelligent in terms of communication, putting his face in the referendum and almost ignoring the regional ones. It so happens that the predictions for the referendum are more optimistic than those of the regional ones … Di Maio he has never tampered with the alliance with the Democratic Party. An SI success could thus mask the probable negative outcome of the Cinquestelle, and on Monday Di Maio would have a flag to display. The problem is whether the NOs won. It is undeniable that the referendum has acquired a strong political value in favor or against the grillini. And a NO could not but be interpreted as a “vaffa” towards them.
After all Giorgia Meloni it is the one that least risks. In recent months, polls have always registered a clear rise of the Brothers of Italy at the national level, and that could hardly be questioned. Of course, if his two candidates, Fitto in Puglia and Acquaroli in Marche, win, the regionals could turn into something of a triumph. Especially yes, but this Giorgia Meloni will never admit, Salvini’s candidate does not succeed in Tuscany. In addition to a challenge to the government, Sunday’s elections are a derby on the center-right to redesign its leadership. The post-Berlusconi has already begun.
Matteo renzi you play a lot. Tomorrow’s elections are, in fact, the baptism of Italy alive, which Renzi had created a year ago but never ran in the elections. Renzi had long ago decided to debut within his friendly walls, Toscana, but now this choice could be risky: if it did not go well, a poor result in Pontassieve and its surroundings would sanction the failure of the project. The minimum target is 4/5 percent nationally, and in Tuscany even more. But above all it is to show the Democratic Party that without him you cannot win. A bit like Pli and Psdi did in the first republic. If the result were rewarding, the former prime minister would have launched a takeover bid on that liberal-reformist area so rich in suitors and perhaps even in votes, if it failed, Italy alive would end up being discarded.
Due to Covid the gentleman he stayed on foot longer than he thought, and his presence in the electoral campaign was virtual. Despite this, it is clear that the Forza Italia result is important because it would somehow reaffirm the presence of the moderate and reformist center-right area, and still demonstrate Berlusconi’s full legitimacy to sit at the center-right table when they are distributed. letters. . Furthermore, before entering San Raffaele, Berlusconi also had time to get confused, declaring his preference for the NO.
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