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Antonio Rapisarda
The investigation involving accountants close to the Lega? “It will affect very little in the vote of the Regionals.” And the “useful vote” in Tuscany, Puglia and Marche? Nicola Zingaretti’s desperate call in support of Giani, Emiliano and Mangialardi? “It will not be effective” to pressure those forced to persecute: that is, the center-left candidates. At least statistically. Word of “Opinio”, the consortium of polling institutes (Ipr Marketing and Noto polls, Emg Acqua and Istituto Piepoli) that provide Rai with exit polls and election projections in real time.
Here is some of the more interesting data, a question posed by Libero, provided by the pollsters gathered at Comin & partners headquarters. Purpose of the meeting? Provide reasoned guidance on “how to read” data that will arrive after polling stations close. Appointment -this of the Regionals and the constitutional referendum-, very delicate and even more complex for the “surveyors”, given that it is the first post-Covid election. And if the virus affects, a different discourse applies to those who hope to rely on the combination of justicialism-antifascism. Translated: There is no use worrying about writing nine-column titles in search of the “upper floors” of the Northern League. And there is no use fooling oneself, in the Pd house, that the Grillini electors are going to respond to the call of Montabalbano’s brother. “The voter does not vote as if he were zapping”, is the analysis of the experts. “The vote is always metabolized.”
Different speech for the school issue: the government has chosen to put its face there and this first week, anything but in the name of efficiency, could be evaluated in the secret of the ballot box. In fact, in school squares, “7% of Italians usually decide, at the last minute, who to vote for”. Although here, in the “last minute” vote, the performance of the candidates and leaders will affect above all: the last days of the campaign will be fundamental. Obviously sewn mouths those of Antonio Noto (Ipr), Fabrizio Masia (Emg) and Livio Gigliuto (Piepoli) in official polls – as established by law – but an orientation, based on the latest polls published and the trend in recent days campaign, you may have one minute after the polls close. “If at the polls (those held outside the polling stations) there was a difference of 5 points between the candidates for governor, for us it means there is a winner,” explained Noto.
What if the difference was 2-3 points? We will have to wait “for the data from the projections (the samples obtained from the actual count) because that percentage falls within the maximum margin of error of 1-1.5%.” At 3 in the afternoon on Monday, in short, with the ballot boxes at the exit will be the political trend: since we will have to wait for the referendum to be counted to have the first concrete results in the governors’ front. If the values of the latest polls were confirmed, therefore, with a gap of 5% in the polls, Zaia, Toti and Acquaroli would already be the winners for the center-right with De Luca in Campania as the only flag for the center-left . Open play, however, in Puglia and Tuscany. And here the Covid effect, in terms of participation and in reference to a fundamental objective, could play a bad joke on the candidates for Pd. “If the elderly are not going to vote out of fear of the Covid”, Opinio members agree, “the vote in the center could decrease.”
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And the referendum? “Compared to the first few months when the gap between Yes and No was even 80-20%, the patterns are changing even if the prevalence is always for yes.” In short, overtaking is difficult. Unless the leaders push the gas in the last few days. Complex but not impossible, “since recently they are changing many positions to the right and left.” Matteo Salvini with militants wearing T-shirts with the inscription: “Prove me too” against judicial fury (LaP)
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