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An Italy destined to be warmer and warmer, without targeted policies to mitigate global warming, with an increase in temperature in the next 30 years up to 2 degrees more (compared to the period 1981-2010) and, in the worst case scenario , with an increase that can reach +5 degrees by 2100. And as the temperature rises, there is a rapid and exponential increase in the costs of the impacts of climate change with a value of up to 8% of GDP per capita at the end of the century. Without interventions to halt the march of global warming, economic inequality between North and South and between the poorest and richest sectors of the population will also increase.
The alarm is contained in the report ‘Risk analysis. Climate change in Italy ‘, from the Cmcc Foundation, Euro-Mediterranean Center for Climate Change.
In the worst scenario, +5 degrees at the end of the century, there is a decrease in summer rainfall in the central and southern regions, an increase in events with heavy rains and in all scenarios an increase in the number of hot days and periods Without rain. Another climatic indicator is tropical nights (days with temperatures never below 20 degrees): up to +18 days between now and 2050 compared to the period 1981-2010, with consequences on health and energy consumption. On the front of extreme events over the past 20 years, the report notes, there has been a 9% increase in the probability of risk.
Not to mention the impact on the marine and coastal environment and on agriculture. In the fields there is a tendency to reduce the yields of many cultivated species. Negative impacts are also expected for the livestock sector.
In cities, due to rising average and extreme temperatures, the increased frequency (and duration) of heat waves and heavy rainfall events, children, the elderly, the disabled and the most vulnerable will suffer the biggest repercussions. In fact – read the report from the Cmcc Foundation – increases in mortality from ischemic heart disease, stroke, nephropathy and metabolic alterations due to heat stress and an increase in respiratory diseases are expected due to the association of phenomena linked to increased temperature in a urban environment. (heat islands) and concentrations of ozone (O3) and fine dust (PM10).
“The report represents the most advanced point of knowledge of the impacts and integrated risk analysis of climate change in Italy”, explains Donatella Spano, member of the Cmcc Foundation and professor at the University of Sassari, who coordinated the 30 authors of the 5 chapters that make up the investigation.
In particular on the risks for the Italian economy, the report underlines that “all sectors are negatively affected by climate change, however, the greatest losses are determined in infrastructure, agriculture and in the summer and winter tourism sector” . Taking into account the worst case of temperature increase at the end of the century, the cost of the risk of floods is 15.3 billion euros per year, in the period 2071-2100; the costs of raising the sea level reach 5,700 million; the decrease in the value of agricultural land between 87 and 162 billion; the contraction of tourist demand to 52 billion euros.
Sos is also shot in the report. In the next decades, the risk will increase by 20%, according to the worst scenarios, with a season of + 20-40 days a year and the area covered by end-of-century fires increasing between 21 and 43 percent.
“Climate change – the researchers write – will require numerous investments and will represent an opportunity for sustainable development that the European Green Deal recognizes as the only development model for the future.”
