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Like many years ago, the presidential election in the United States will be decided by the votes that Donald Trump and Joe Biden will win in a handful of states. Indeed, for historical reasons, the American electoral system favors the candidate who manages to win in the largest number of densely populated states, rather than the one who gets the most votes. In 2016 Trump was elected president also because he managed to win by a few tens of thousands of votes in some densely populated states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where Democrats were convinced they had victory in their pocket, while Democrats won in other states. with a very large advantage that, however, was irrelevant to his chances of victory.
Given that we already know with some certainty who between Trump and Biden will win in most American states, for historical and demographic reasons, or because polls give one of the two an insurmountable advantage, to understand who will become president there is to be vigilant. the so-called “states in the balance”, those that could vote in majority for one or the other and therefore will be decisive. For the moment, as recently summarized Five thirty eight, the best candidate is without a doubt Joe Biden.
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The necessary premise is that, contrary to the emphatic tones used in recent weeks by some Italian newspapers, polls have not pointed to any Trump comeback, despite weeks of considerable media exposure due to the Republican convention, which ended on 27 December. August, a week. after that of the Democrats – and the daily speeches and press conferences on the management of the coronavirus and on ethnic tensions in the big cities. The other premise is that polls can, at best, provide a snapshot of the present and not predict the future – a lot can still happen that can change Americans’ preferences.
According to the average of Very clear policy, which aggregates national data from the most reliable polls, Biden has a 7 to 8 percentage point lead nationally – roughly the same as it was in early summer, before the most recent pandemic developments and conventions and protests. But precisely: national data can be an indicator of American support, but we must look at individual states, and especially those in the balance, to understand who has the greatest chance of victory.
(Real policy clear)
Five thirty eight He points out that in recent weeks the situation has remained more or less stable, with some natural fluctuations, even in most of the states considered in the balance: therefore, mostly favorable to Biden. In mid-August, Biden was ahead of Trump by 6.8 points in Wisconsin, by 7.6 points in Michigan, by 1.3 in North Carolina (all states where Trump beat Clinton in 2016). In none of these states has the consensus change been greater than 0.4 percent in the last three weeks.
(Five thirty eight)
The problems for Biden begin in two very important states that have seen a significant change, both in favor of Trump: Florida and Ohio.
In Florida, where Trump won by around 100,000 votes in 2016, Biden’s lead was cut nearly in half, from 5.3 to 2.8 points. Five thirty eight speculates that it has to do with the fact that Trump and the Republicans accuse the Democratic party of supporting a “socialist” program, an adjective of rejection for the million and a half Cuban exiles or descendants of Cuban exiles living in Florida, and for the many white elders. who live in the state. In Ohio, another state where white voters matter a lot, Biden has lagged behind: Trump is one point ahead.
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The situation in Florida and Ohio makes clear why most American analysts and observers remain very cautious about the odds of a Biden victory. If Trump really did win in Florida and Ohio, it would be enough for him to get re-elected, in addition to winning in the states where he is far ahead, to get just one more vote than Biden in some balanced but traditionally Republican states like Texas, Georgia. Arizona and North Carolina, where he won four years ago, and repeat 2016’s success in a single state between Michigan and Pennsylvania.
(New York Times graphic simulation)
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