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MILAN. The rating agency Fitch updates its estimates of the GDP of several countries in the world, including Italy. In its outlook for September, Fitch lowered forecasts for the decline in Italian GDP for 2020 to -10%, from -9.5% previously in June.
“If the recovery in the United States and Europe continued at the rate of the past two months, GDP would soon return to pre-virus levels,” shaping the “much-discussed V-rebound seen in China,” he writes. Fitch, stressing, however, that this is an “overly optimistic” estimate and that the recovery should “slow down in the fourth quarter.”
However, the rating agency raises the estimates on Italy’s GDP for 2021, taking them from + 4.4% to + 5.4%. In 2022, again according to Fitch, GDP should increase by 2%. Regarding consumption, Fitch estimates a contraction of 9.8% in 2020 followed by a rebound to + 5.6% next year, while the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 11.4% in 2020 and 11 ., 7% in 2021.
