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The rating agency FitchFollowing its September outlook, it carried out a downward revision of the GDP estimates for several countries in the world for 2020, a list that also includes Italy.
As for the generalEurozone a decrease of 9% is expected, compared to the 8% previously estimated; a growth that should also be registered in Great Britain, where it goes from an estimate of 9% to one of 11.5%.“We expect an impact on unemployment in Europe; companies are cutting investment and social distancing continues to hold back private consumption”Fitch chief economist Brian Coulton explained, as reported by “Acted”. In the United States, the rating agency, on the other hand, expects a drop of 4.6%, an estimate lower than the dreaded (that is, – 5.6%). It also reported forecasts for China, which could grow 2.7%. China, which is still the only one excluded from the dark forecast for emerging markets: rises from 4.7% to 5.7%, mainly due to strong estimates for India’s GDP. In fact, by next March 2021, Fitch estimates that it could go from – 5% to even – 10.5%.
What should happen instead in Italy? Forecasts for a fall in gross domestic product are slightly lower, going from – 9.5% (June) to – 10%. “If the recovery in the United States and Europe continued at the rate of the last two months, GDP would soon return to pre-virus levels.”Fitch explains. This would lead to “Much discussed ‘V’ bounce as seen in China”. However, the rating agency anticipates that it is an estimate “too optimistic” and that, therefore, the economic recovery could “slow down in the fourth quarter”.
“GDP fell more than we expected in the second quarter, contracting 12.8% compared to our 8.2% forecast in June”explains a report. After the end of the closure of the country imposed by the government “the economic activity itself is Recovery quickly, and this could lead to a strong rebound in the third quarter “. However“There has been some loss of growth momentum in recent weeks. It is important to underline that our forecasts do not yet take into account the expenses derived from the approval of the EU recovery fund of 750 billion euros.”Fitch explains again as reported by Agi.
Estimates on the increase for 2021, however, they are on the rise compared to Italy: Fitch calculates + 5.4% (compared to + 4.4% previously), and + 2% for the following 2022. In the consumption category, In contrast to a drastic decrease in the current year (- 9.8%), it could reach a rebound to + 5.6% in 2021. Unemployment increases: from 11.4% in 2020 to 11.7% in the next year.
