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The British government wants to use the “nuclear option” to break the deadlock in the Brexit negotiations. Prime Minister Boris Johnson wants to show the European Union that he is serious about exiting without a deal if he doesn’t get enough concessions from Brussels by October 15. In recent days, the London executive has tried to pressure the EU through a series of promises and demonstrations.
The most significant measure would be the passage of a law in Parliament that would effectively cancel the most delicate clauses of the withdrawal agreement negotiated with the EU last October. The news was reported this morning by the Financial Times, but Downing Street did not deny it. According to the British newspaper, the government intends to cancel the rules guaranteeing ad hoc status in Ulster, Northern Ireland. This move could derail the talks between London and Brussels. The EU has always reiterated that the withdrawal agreement is the basis on which to negotiate future relations and would not tolerate any pushback from the London government.
The rumors this morning were greeted with disgust by the leaders of the EU institutions. European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen tweeted that she “has faith that the British government will implement the Withdrawal Agreement” and highlighted the importance of ad hoc regulations regarding Northern Ireland. EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier told French radio that he was “concerned” that he would not be able to reach an agreement before the new October 15 deadline and urged the other side to approach the negotiations with more sense. common.
Many commentators wonder if the provocation by the British government is just a hoax to force the EU to step back in view of the resumption of negotiations on Tuesday. In the first phase of the negotiations, Boris Johnson and other prominent Eurosceptics urged then-Prime Minister Theresa May to threaten a no-deal exit to force Brussels to compromise. In recent days, the government has reiterated that it is not at all afraid of the hypothesis of no agreement. The British chief negotiator, David Frost, gave a rare interview to the Daily Mail on Sunday in which he ruled out any form of compromise on the most sensitive issues (such as state aid, access to the single market and fisheries) and reiterated that the United States United will not become a “vassal state” of the EU.
Until now, the EU had no reason to make concessions to Britain because the no-deal hypothesis would have hurt London above all. However, the possible cancellation of the Northern Ireland protocol changes the cards and raises the stakes for Brussels. In the event of a failure to reach an agreement, the rules to prevent the return of a border between Belfast and Dublin would no longer apply, a result that the EU has tried to avoid at all costs. The British government hopes that this concern will convince the EU to abandon the line of rigor and to guarantee concessions.
Another clue to the interpretation is that the government is waging a principled battle to appease the ire of Conservative MPs, who are disappointed by the mismanagement of the pandemic and the reopening of schools. Brexiters have always had a hard time with the protocol on Northern Ireland, which they see as an act of submission to the EU. According to the Withdrawal Treaty, Brussels must authorize state aid affecting trade between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom. Furthermore, many conservatives do not accept the fact that there are tariffs and customs controls on exports from Great Britain to Northern Ireland. Both of these unpopular norms would be modified by the new government law. As the British newspapers write, Johnson’s provocation to the EU is “red meat” for Eurosceptic MPs.
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