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Two point advantage of Giani in Ceccardi. But the variables are so many that analysts say that the return of the candidate Presidency of the Region center-right against the center-left candidate for governor is possible.
the Swg survey for “La Nazione” gives new elements to think about to attract the final long race to the vote of September 20 and 21. Eugenio Giani (Pd, Italia Viva, Sinistra Civica ecologista, Pride Toscano, Europa verde Toscana, Svolta) occurs in a consensus fork between 42 and 46 percent, Susanna ceccardi (Lega, Fratelli d’Italia, Forza Italia, Toscana Civica) reaches votes between 40 and 44 percent while Irene Galletti (5-star movement) is between 6.5 and 10.5 percent e Tommaso fattori from ‘Toscana to Sinistra’ between 2 and 4 percent.
Florence, September 4, 2020 – The other candidates (Catello for the Communist Party, Barzanti for the PCI and Vigni for 3V in total would win between 1.5 and 3.5 percent). Undecided percentage at 29 percent. The treasury of votes of the coalitions and lists is interesting. The total center-right is ahead, according to Rado Fonda, director of research at Swg, compared to the center-left: between 41-45 percent versus 40.5-44.5 percent. Undecided percentage at 23 percent.
The statistical margin of error is three percent, so the “bifurcations” of votes attributed to the two strongest candidates may overlap. “Giani has a two-point advantage, he is sure he is ahead even if he is not excluded, analyzing all the parameters – Fonda emphasizes – Ceccardi’s comeback, also referring to the strength of the coalition that sees the center-right ahead, even if it is slightly, compared to the center left. ” Giani “seems to be a solid candidate anyway,” raising more than the coalition that supports him. “
This scenario “does not allow us to indicate who can get to the bottom of the electoral challenge first,” continues Fonda. According to SWG, the electorate of the 5 Star Movement would be in a situation of “indecision” so much that it is estimated that 40 percent still have no certainty about what to do: whether to vote for the Movement or to opt for a separate pro-Giani and anti-center-right vote. . , the “useful” vote that the center-left expects. Among the lists, the Democratic Party is the most voted party that maintains the leadership in Tuscany (between 32.5 and 34.5 percent) followed by the League (between 27 and 29 percent) while FdI almost double digits and Italy Viva di Renzi (with Più Europa) would not reach more than 5 percent.
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