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Three to three, four to two, five to one: the challenge of the regional elections is now reduced to a soccer match between very prolific teams. There is no doubt that the electoral rounds actually hide complex and articulated scenarios, but it is equally evident that, even more so this year, the elections have a particular significance for the fate of the parties and the government. And, two weeks after the vote, the last day before the blackout, the result is not at all obvious.
Regional elections are not just local elections, and those who have tried to liquidate them so often have been burned by them. In 2000, the then prime minister, Massimo D’Alema, resigned after the defeat of his coalition against the center-right. In 2005, after the famous “12 to 2” with which the center-left won the regional return, Silvio Berlusconi approached Colle to announce the end of his government and the birth of a new executive. Five years ago, on the occasion of the regional, the new direction of Renzian began to creak, which only twelve months earlier had led the Democratic Party to exceed 40%, while in 2015 he unexpectedly ran aground against the center-right in Liguria, risking defeat also in “red” Umbria.
THE OPEN GAMES
This year, voting intentions emerging from polls published in recent weeks show general open play in a couple of regions, which will be decisive in determining the final result of the abacus.
Let’s start with northern Italy, where, in addition to Val d’Aosta, Veneto and Liguria go to vote. Both, although in different ways, seem like elections without history. In both cases, the center-right is heading for a clear victory, confirming two outgoing presidents that they are appreciated. In Veneto, the North League player Zaia is probably close to the biggest victory in the history of the Italian regional elections: the average of the polls published by YouTrend place him at 73.9%, while the main competitor, the Deputy Mayor of Padua Lorenzoni, would stop at 17.8%. A result that leaves little room for interpretation, and that could launch the Venetian governor at the national level.
LABORATORY
The result of the vote in Liguria, although with smaller proportions, also seems to be already written: published polls give Toti an average of 57%, while his opponent, Ferruccio Sansa, would not exceed 36.6%. This is a symbolic competition, given that Pd and 5Stelle have closed an alliance agreement only in this region. An agreement that would seem to repeat the result of Umbria: a tough defeat for both and for the prospects of an organic alliance.
In central Italy, two traditionally “red” regions are voted on, the Marches and Tuscany: both have always been ruled by the center-left, which has not re-nominated outgoing presidents. And these two regions have been the big surprises of the surveys of the last months. In the Marche region, the center-right is preparing to celebrate a historic victory, with Acquaroli’s average lead, again according to polls published so far, of more than ten points over the dem challenger, Mangialardi. In Tuscany, on the other hand, the center-left is confirmed ahead with Eugenio Giani, but Susanna Ceccardi, MEP of the League, has filled part of the disadvantage and now dreams of a surprise victory. According to polls, Ceccardi is still chasing, but just over two points behind: 43.7% to 41.5%.
THE GREAT TRIALS
In the south, the center-left ranks the outgoing governors, Vincenzo De Luca in Campania and Michele Emiliano in Puglia, supported by a significant number of lists, but the two are currently in a different situation. De Luca does not appear to have rivals: Caldoro and Ciarambino, the same rivals as the president of five years ago, are well separated. De Luca is at 51%, Caldoro supported by the center-right at 32.2%, while the pentastellata Ciarambino stops at 12.9%. With these data, Campania would become “the re-destination region of Italy”, even if these results seem to reflect an important consensus of the outgoing president rather than a precise choice from the political field. Puglia, on the other hand, at this point seems to be the real region in the balance: Fitto and Emiliano are face to face in a game in the last vote. Fitto, exponent of the Brothers of Italy, would currently reach 41.2%, compared to the outgoing president, 38.4%. Emiliano, for his part, relies heavily on the strength of the fifteen lists that support him, and will seek to erode the consent of the government partners, the 5 Stars, who nominate Antonella Laricchia. The candidate of the Movement is credited with 14.8% of the votes: an interesting pool and the highest figure among the different regions for the 5 Stars, which run the risk of leaving these regions even more weakened. Ivan Scalfarotto, Undersecretary of Foreign Affairs supported by Italia Viva, Action and + Europe, would be 3.3%.
BIPOLAR DISORDER
So the challenge is between the center right and the center left, in what might seem like a return to bipolarism. If we were to vote today, the average polls would give the center-right a four-to-two victory. But there are several games in the balance: the center-left awaits the draw, and focuses on the confirmation of Emiliano, whose distance with Fitto is limited, while the center-right dreams of Tuscany, where Ceccardi seems willing to play the game until the end. .
Meanwhile, the entire country is preparing for the referendum vote to cut the number of parliamentarians. In this case, Italy seems less divided and the game is certainly less open: the average data from the polls, net of a large slice of abstentions and still undecided, actually sees the “yes” above 77%. A very relevant issue, given the unbalanced balance of power towards yes, will be to understand how many will vote: a high turnout would further legitimize the result, a low turnout would deliver at 5 Stelle, for which it is a decisive and symbolic battle, a victory for half.
Last update: 12:04
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