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In a crisis of leadership and consensus, the 5 star movement That’s in the chaos. The grillina ship, not from today, sails in (very) troubled waters: the regional elections will be a decisive event for the future of the pentastellata team. And in the session of September 20 and 21, the Five Stars come to us of anything but healthy, given the perennial internal struggles and the continuous departures of the parliamentary groups of the Chamber and Senate: in the last two days, in fact, another two they have said goodbye to the M5. It is about Paolo Lattanzio and Piera Aiello. And so the list of goodbyes becomes even longer.
As the regional vote in Veneto, Liguria, Tuscany, Marche, Campania and Puglia, the fear in the Cinque Stelle house has grown: a new and umpteenth electoral coup it’s on us. If in Liguria the “five stars” run alongside the Democratic Party – supporting Ferruccio Sansa’s race against the outgoing governor Giovanni Toti – in all other contexts they will run alone. And, according to polls, they will do badly. Very bad.
The glories of the 33 and the broken percent of the May 2018 policies are a long way off, but to date the 17.1% obtained in the May 2019 European Championships is also far. fear of the grillini in these difficult regionals is to position yourself slightly (maybe up, maybe down) 10%.
A fact that, if confirmed in the polls, would have potentially devastating effects both for the party and for the majority of Giallorossi, which could suffer a possibly decisive push from the center-right.
What the polls say (sti)
Before the call to the polls, ilGiornale.it contacted the pollster Renato mannheimer to see a picture of the situation. The most likely scenario for the next Regionals is that of a 4-2 in favor of Carroccio, FdI and Azzurri, a result not without consequences for Pd, M5s and all Conte-bis. Especially in the case that the percentages of the two forces were (much) lower than those collected at the European Championships in May 2019. And the risk to the 5-Star Movement is definitely real.
“The effects of the vote will be there and it will be great, both on the PD and on the M5s. But they are so attached to the places they have, it is difficult for even such a result to move them. Of course, the government can resist but it obviously comes out of it. weakened ”, explains the expert.
the release, or rather the collapse of the 5 Star Movement, in short, is a very likely possibility. “That the pentastelatos can finish below 10% is very difficult, but anything can happen. It is true that the pentastelatos are in decline and in the medium term they will go down a lot: they are over. How this process occurs is difficult to say; the so-called ‘grillina’ propulsion thrust is certainly over, “adds Mannheimer, who plans more confusion inside the M5 in the sequel to Regionals: “There will be even more chaos, and we will see new launches. Anyway, a general stampede.” “Each one will have to find a place to settle in order not to return to their previous jobs,” the caustic Mannheimer’s consideration before saying goodbye.
Expulsions, exiles and the shadow of Dibba
Escape-escape, in fact. In recent months it has been difficult to keep track of how many deputies and senators have left closing the door. The last two, as mentioned, were Lattanzio and Aiello. And they will not be the last. Not to mention all the 5 expelled MPs, such as Gianluigi Paragone, Mario Giarrusso and Nicola Acunzo.
The list is very long and also includes Paola Nugnes and Gelsomina Vono – but remained in the majority, respectively with Leu and Italia Viva – and Alessandra Riccardi, Ugo Grassi, Stefano Lucidi and Francesco Urraro, who instead went to the opposition. between the rows. of the old allies of the League.
The future of the Movement is increasingly uncertain. Davide casaleggio me Beppe Grillo do melina, certainly not attracting the sympathies of elected and voters. Rather.
The grillina base has fallen in love heavily and seems to get a bit of a shake only when Alessandro Di Battista break the silence on social media to attack the Movement’s historical enemies: that Dibba can return and become the new party leader, after the certainly not exciting experience of Luigi Di Maio and Regent Vito Crimi at the head of the formation , is a little likely.
Rousseau, mandates and alliances
And then there is the knot Rousseau. The platform Voting reserved for M5 members and managed by Casaleggio Associati it was the scene of the last sensational grillina turn: the taboo of the limit of the two terms falls and the alliances are given the green light at the local level. The turning point came in mid-August (on the eve of August 15) with a vote that promoted the axis with the dem with 60% and gave the “el” to the zero mandate with 80% of the favors.
An unthinkable twist until a few years ago, when the pentastellati professed themselves “tough and pure.” Now, unlike the one originally declared by the founder Gianroberto Casaleggio, they started with a capital “p”, they have become one hundred percent institutionalized. And they have lost their appeal, also considering the boring performances of their ministers in government: just think of the Guardian of the Seals Alfonso Bonafede or the Minister of the School Lucia Azzolina, just to give two examples. Without forgetting, finally, the gaffes of Luigi Di Maio in the Farnesina.
The last (or perhaps the only?) Workhorse left on the M5 is the parliamentary court – the last word in the confirmatory referendum of September 20 and 21 – but this single battle is not enough to warm the hearts of a people from Grillino disappointed by their (old) favorites.
It is not a coincidence that in the space of a year the votes for the Movement have been cut substantially in half: 33% in Politics in 2018, 17% in the European Championships in 2019. The numbers, as always, never lie . And taking Mannheimer’s prediction for granted, if “the pentastelado propellant thrust is exhausted”, the electoral basin from Grille is inexorably destined to shrink as the days go by.
