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The electoral campaign in Puglia extremely close and at the moment the game is very open. There are eight competing candidates, of which only the current president Emiliano and the former president Fitto are known to the vast majority of Apulianos (respectively 92% and 79%); Antonella Laricchia of Movimento5stelle, the only woman among the competitors, known to one in two voters (49%) and Ivan Scalfarotto, supported by Italia viva and other lists, by about one in four (23%). Apulians are divided on opinions about the outgoing administration: 52% give a positive assessment while 46% express themselves critically. Consensus prevails not only among center-left voters (82%) but also among pentaterlates (53%).
Or continue Cambiemento
However, as already found in the Marches, the expectation prevails (55%) that the future president of the region will bring a substantial change in the content and in the way of governing, compared to the 33% who advocate continuity. Also in this case, the expected change has to do with concerns related to the economic crisis and possible social repercussions. The candidate’s voting intentions at this time see Fitto an advantage over Emiliano: 41% against 39.4%. It is followed by Laricchia with 15.6% and Scalfarotto with 1.6%. All the others are estimated to be below 1%. Regarding the lists, Pd (18%) and Lega (17.5%) compete for the lead, followed by M5S (17%), Fratelli d’Italia (12.9%), Forza Italia (7.5% ) and the numerous lists of support for the outgoing president and his main rival. It should be noted that in order to access the distribution of seats, the regional electoral law provides for exceeding the threshold equal to 4% for those who run in coalition.
Great uncertainty
The sum of the lists that support Emiliano as a whole reaches 38.4% (that is, 1% less than the candidate’s voting intentions), while those that support Fitto amount to 42.4% (1 , 4% more). Likewise, the M5S would obtain more votes for the list than for its own candidate (1.4% more). This means that Emiliano at this stage is making use of the separate vote of a part of the voters from the opposing lists who express their gratitude to him, and there are not a few: in fact, the survey shows that 45% of the pentastellati express their gratitude. satisfaction with the outgoing president. as well as 18% of center-right voters. And it is no coincidence that in recent days Emiliano has appealed to the voters of the M5S to invite them to vote separately. In the situation of great uncertainty that characterizes the elections in Apulia, the participation in the polls, currently estimated at 55%, and the role of the undecided who today represent 15.5% will be decisive. Two politically very hot weeks are expected in the region.
September 2, 2020 (change September 2, 2020 | 07:19)
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