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Surveys, you know, should be taken with a grain of salt. They do provide some interesting pointers though. The one by Winpoll-Cise, published by Sole 24 ore, highlights a close encounter, in Tuscany, between the center-left candidate Eugenio Giani and the center-right candidate Susanna Ceccardi. Giani gives himself at 43%, Ceccardi follows him at 42.5%. A minimal gap between the two challengers. In practice they are on par, also taking into account that there is always a margin of error (in this case equal to 2.4%). In third place the candidate of the 5 Star Movement, Irene Galletti, with 8.3%. The other underage candidates collectively collect 6.2%.
It’s also interesting to take a look at party preferences. In first place we find the League, with 24.1%. The Democratic Party ranks second, with 22.6%. The third force is the Brothers of Italy, on the rise, with 11.8%. It is followed by the 5 Star Movement with 8.3%. Forza Italia is trading at 5.4%, Italia Viva di Renzi at 5.7%.
If the center-right delivered the “coup” in Tuscany, it would be a terrible blow for the Democratic Party. With possible repercussions also on the government itself. Although the fear of returning home prematurely is a formidable glue that can keep any executive on their feet. But how does a region that has always been red suddenly become contestable? Let’s say immediately that the red bastion has collapsed over the years, going from 59.8% of the votes with which Enrico Rossi won in 2010 to 48% in 2015. Also, an even more interesting figure, it should be noted that various cities Tuscans are now ruled by the center-right and therefore citizens have been able to touch on the strengths and weaknesses of a ruling class of different color.
With the 2019 European elections there was even an overtaking of the center right, although with a lower percentage of voters and taking into account that the vote for Brussels is usually an opinion vote. The fact is that Tuscany is no longer what it used to be and that anything is possible. Giani pays the price of not being president in office by asking for a reconfirmation (as was Bonaccini in Emilia Romagna). In addition, he is perceived as a candidate if not “old” certainly a bit old-fashioned, since he has at least thirty years of political experience, first in the ranks of Craxi’s PSI, then in the Democratic Party, with a very recent past. close to Renzi.
The difference could be the voters who voted for Movimento 5 Stelle in the European elections and who will not elect Irene Galletti, because they do not consider her capable of doing so: according to the electoral flows cited in the Sole 24 Ore study, the preference goes over all for Ceccardi. And among the “famous” undecided voters the prevalence is among those who in the past Pd.
There is another data that surprises in some way. It is relative to the voting intentions in the Referendum for the reduction of parliamentarians. The poll shows that the No are in 52% (to shoot are mainly the voters of the Northern League, oriented to the option of rejecting the reform). Giani is in favor of the YES and this, according to analysts, could bring him some votes in the 5-star zone, which as is known are the promoters and great sponsors of the reform.
