Istat revises its GDP estimates downwards: -12.8% in the second quarter. The initial forecast was -12.4%

Istat estimates on the trend of Italian GDP in the second quarter 2020, that is, during the period in which Italy entered a total blockade due to the containment measures of the pandemic. The forecasts, corrected for calendar effects and seasonally adjusted, speak of a fall in gross domestic product in 12.8% compared to the previous quarter and of 17.7% if compared to the period April-May-June 2019. The preliminary calculations published in July, on the other hand, spoke of a cyclical variation of -12% and a trend variation of 17 ,3% .

One fact is confirmed: Italian GDP has never seen such a significant drop since nineteen ninety five, that is, from the beginning of the current historical series. The statistical institute underscores this, stating that the change acquired for 2020 is equal to -14.7%. “The full estimate of the quarterly income statements confirms the exceptional magnitude of the fall in GDP in the second quarter of economic effects of the health emergency and the containment measures adopted “, reads the press release. In any case, it must be taken into account that the second quarter of 2020 had one less business day both compared to the previous quarter and the second quarter of 2019.

Dragging the drop in GDP, Istat explains, was above all the domestic demand, with a particularly negative contribution from private consumption and material negative contributions from investments and inventory changes. Also there foreign demand it made a negative contribution, due to the reduction in exports that was more decisive than that of imports. In particular, compared to the previous quarter, all the main aggregates of domestic demand decreased, with decreases of 8.7% for domestic final consumption and 14.9% for gross fixed investments. Imports and exports decreased by 20.5% and 26.4% respectively.

Net national demand for inventories contributed -9.5 percentage points to the contraction of GDP, with -6.7 percentage points of household consumption and of the Private Social Institutions Isp, -2.6 points of Gross Fixed Investment and -0.2 points of Expenditure of the Public Administrations (Ap). The change in inventories and net external demand also contributed negatively to the change in GDP, respectively, by -0.9 and -2.4 percentage points. Negative economic trends were registered for value added in all the main productive sectors, with a fall in agriculture, industry and services by 3.7%, 20.2% and 11% respectively. As to household expenses, registered a decrease in economic terms of 12.4%. In particular, durable goods purchases decreased by 21.4%, non-durable goods by 4.4%, services by 15.8% and semi-durable goods by 15.1%.

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