Istat cuts GDP data: -12.8% during the second quarter of the year

MILAN – Istat revises down the estimates on the trend of the Italian economy during the most acute phase of the pandemic, when the blockade halted the country. According to the Statistics Institute, the fall in GDP in the second quarter of the year (from April to June) was 12.8% compared to the previous quarter and 17.7% compared to the previous year. The preliminary estimate, which was published on July 31, instead showed a contraction of 12.4% in the short term and 17.3% on a trend basis. The worsening in the final data is therefore 0.4% both in trend and economic terms.

Thus the exceptional nature of the pandemic is accentuated: “The complete estimate of the quarterly economic accounts – writes Istat – confirms the exceptional magnitude of the fall in GDP in the second quarter due to the economic effects of the health emergency and the containment measures adopted, with decreases of 12.8% in economic terms and 17.7% in trend terms, never recorded since 1995 “. The latest statistical update also confirms the long streak of “lack of growth” in our economy. The latest plus sign, an anemic + 0.1%, dates back to the second quarter of 2019, and was followed by zero economic growth in the following quarter and thus by a series of negative trends, with -0 ,two%. in the last quarter of 2019, and then -5.5% in the first three months of 2020 and then from the -12.8% announced today.

At this point, the acquired variation of GDP for the whole of 2020 is equal to -14.7%: with this figure we refer to the path that the Italian economy would take if in the remaining quarters of the year the cyclical variation of GDP was zero . As the Minister of Economy, Roberto Gualtieri said in the recent past, it is legitimate to expect a rebound with the restart of economic activity from May.

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According to consolidated data, according to Istat, “the fall in GDP was mainly driven by domestic demand, with a particularly negative contribution from private consumption and significant negative contributions from investments and variations in inventories.” Foreign demand also “made a negative contribution”, due to the more decisive reduction in exports than imports.

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The contraction of economic activity on the one hand, but employment protection measures on the other, have led the Istat to measure the reduction in labor input understood as hours worked, “while jobs have suffered a less marked decline” .