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Tommaso Montesano
Fortunately, at the same time, in seven regions, there will also be a vote to elect governors. Otherwise, going to the polling station to decide whether to say “Yes” or “No” to the cut of MPs would be too few close friends. As much as high or low participation changes something, Since it is a confirmatory and non-abrogative referendum, the achievement of a quorum is not required for its validity. Epperò: It is one thing to drag masses of enthusiastic voters to the polls, it is another thing to attend a quiet vote. However, this is the most likely scenario with three weeks left until the polls open. Second Nando Pagnoncelli, number one of Ipsos Italy, only 35% of citizens, that is, one in three Italians, are aware of what is at stake on September 20 and 21: the 230-seat scissor in Montecitorio and 115 benches in Palazzo Madama. An opinion shared, in recent days, also by Alessandra ghisleriThe director of Euromedia Research, who, analyzing the findings of the first weeks of August, ruled: “Many did not know that in addition to some Regionals, a referendum should also be voted.” The question will be too technical, will the mind be occupied by the chaos about the reopening of schools, will it be the anxiety of the social gatherings before entering the voting booth.
So much so: the vote does not warm the hearts of Italians. And to say that today is even better than a month ago. “At the end of July only 22% of the voters knew about the referendum. Now the percentage has doubled, but that does not mean that those who know the issue stand up, “warns Antonio Noto, director of Noto Sondaggi. The increase in knowledge is favored by the fact that in seven Regions – Valle d’Aosta; Liguria; Veneto; Tuscany; March; Campania and Puglia – there will also be a vote – and above all – to elect governors. “They will be challenges destined to drag up the participation in the referendum, although in the most important regions, such as Lombardy and Lazio, this does not happen.”
POLITICAL BATTLE
And to say that the question has everything to encourage high participation. “It’s a belly vote, you don’t need manuals on constitutional law to excite Italians, as La Repubblica is trying to do without success,” observes Nicola Piepoli, director of the eponymous research institute. It is a pity that interest around the referendum has increased in recent days thanks to the descent into the field of “Yes and No testimonies”, says Noto. “Being a technical issue, voters will form an opinion based on the orientation of their political referents. It is a path that must be metabolized ». With danger, for the 5 Star Movement, great sponsor of the “Yes”: “Let it happen as in 2016 on the occasion of the constitutional referendum that cost dearly to Matteo Renzi. In other words, that a technical issue becomes, over time, a political party. That is to say: I am not voting for the merit of the argument, but for what is more convenient to annoy my opponent. This increases the confusion. Hence the trend of pentastellati, to smell the air that begins to blow, so as not to personalize the September appointment too much.
By the way: how’s the game going? «The ‘Yes’ has always been ahead, but now the trend is different. We have gone from a match with no history – 80% vs 20% – to a playable match: now the ratio is 60-40. The “No” is in recovery ». A percentage that Piepoli has just adjusted: «The” Yes “has gone from the initial 90% to the current 70%. The “No” is not marginal, but at the moment it does not have the strength to impose itself. It would take a public debate and, above all, more time.
INCOGNITE COVID
In the game, then, is the unknown Coronavirus. With the “tam tam” of distancing and the danger of meetings that could discourage voters from going to the polling station. “The Covid factor is imponderable”, admits Noto, “voters could be tempted to go home if they found themselves in very long lines in front of the entrance to the electoral college.” Long lines not for attendance, but for health check procedures before picking up the card and pencil. Piepoli is cautious about voting: “Today 75% of voters say they will go to vote. But those who actually leave home with the electoral roll in their pockets are, to say the least, half. Surprising, given that the theme, the cut of the armchairs, has everything to attract the polls. “The citizens know very well that it is useless to go to vote: there is no quorum,” said the pollster. And here the municipal elections return: «In the seven Regions where you will vote to elect the president, it is easy to assume that the turnout will exceed 50%. This, combined with the mourning for the mayors of large cities such as Venice and Reggio Calabria, will have the effect of boosting the referendum.
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