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The regional elections and the constitutional referendum of September 20 and 21 take on special relevance for possible political reflections at the national level at a very delicate stage in the life of the country. However, unlike in the past, when local elections were considered a kind of ordeal, a national test to measure the strength of parties or the strength of alliances, the health emergency has reassigned a leading role to the regions that, no to In this case, they saw an increase in the level of trust among citizens, which went from 48% in April 2019 to 60% in April this year, and then stood at 57% in July. In this phase, some governors have especially distinguished themselves and it seems to us that it has had a strong impact on the opinions of the voters and on the voting patterns.
Today’s survey, carried out with a view to the elections in Campania, confirms this: The current president Vincenzo De Luca credited a very clear advantage (more than 21 points) over his main opponent, the center-right candidate Stefano Caldoro, with whom he will face for the third time in the last 10 years. A conspicuous advantage, the result of several elements, from the high appreciation of the work of the outgoing administration: almost two out of three Campania (62%) express a positive opinion while 30% are critical. Positive evaluations are also very present in the center-right electorate (48%) and in the pentastellato (39%). Therefore, it is not surprising that 50% of voters believe that whoever wins the next election will have to continue in the work carried out by De Luca, compared to 35% who want a substantial change. In detail, estimating a 54% participation in the vote, De Luca stands at 50.4% (9.3% more than in 2015), Caldoro at 29% (9.4% less) and Valeria Ciarambino from M5S, already a candidate in 2015, with 15.8% (-1.7%). The other candidates to date have a much lower reputation (between 11 and 15% of voters are known) and are attributed values lower than 1% with the exception of Giuliano Granata (Potere al Popolo) at 2.2%.
Without a doubt, De Luca’s explosive personality represents a fundamental element of his consent. The votes for the outgoing president are almost three points higher than those of the lists of his coalition, while for Caldoro and Ciarambino the opposite phenomenon occurs, that is, they obtain fewer votes than the support lists. But De Luca’s political capacity is equally important: since he has 15 lists, he can represent very varied and transversal social and political segments. And with regard to the voting by lists, some interesting data emerge: the Democratic Party with 19.2% is in first place, remaining substantially stable against both the Europeans and the regionals of 2015; It is followed, in the center-left coalition, by De Luca’s list as president with 12.2% (in 2015 he obtained 4.9%), then Free Campania with 4.1% (against 4.8% %) and the set of other lists in support of De Luca that together obtain 12%.
In the center-right Forza Italia prevails over the allies with 14% keeping the results of the Europeans, followed by FdI with 10.2% (almost double the European and previous Regionals), then Caldoro’s list as president with 4.1% (compared to 7.2% in 2015) and finally the League with 3.3%, in sharp decline compared to Europeans when it was the most voted party with 19.2%. Barring sensational surprises in the last three weeks of the election campaign, a confirmation of De Luca as head of Campania seems to emerge.
August 29, 2020 (change August 29, 2020 | 08:18)
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