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Two months of mild quarantine and no results. In fact, the worst point on the contagion curve and the bleak outlook. Brazil is becoming the global case of the coronavirus. Raise the rankings of positives and victims, and although all indicators indicate that it would be time for real pressure on the movement of people, people are back on the street, there is talk of reopening and politicians are fighting.
It affects urban areas
The latest official figure (13,276 deaths and 192,000 infections) may not seem dramatic in a population of more than 200 million people, but there are two details: the concentration of cases in the most populated urban areas and the rate of growth. According to an estimate by British Imperial College, Brazil is the last country in the world with an R0 contagion rate of around 2, indicating an exponential growth of the disease. The consequence is that victims could double with each passing week, before the curve begins to flatten out.
Bolsonaro’s Denialist
Meanwhile, the health systems of large metropolitan areas such as São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Manaus are close to saturation, that phenomenon sadly known worldwide when cases increase: lines in emergency rooms, people who die in their homes, lack of beds. and respirators. Except for the usual deniers (and President Jair Bolsonaro is still among them), the common opinion that the Brazilian situation is the daughter of too many people, especially in some neighborhoods of big cities, where the outdoors and the economy Informal is the norm.
Blocking not respected
Officially, almost all of Brazil would have been in quarantine for two months (schools closed, commercial activities reduced to the essentials), but it is unlikely that less than 50 percent of the inhabitants are on the streets. A megalopolis like San Paolo has tried them all, without great results. A forced blockade of car traffic these days has not reduced crowding rates on the streets even by one point. While Bolsonaro continues to argue that hunger is worse than Covid-19, and his health ministry is limited to mild coordination measures, each state and municipality does its own thing. Some cities have proclaimed unilateral blockades, announcing fines to those around them for no reason, others have created health barriers to prevent the entry of non-residents. In Rio, the mayor came to close some commercial streets in individual neighborhoods. Some of Bolsonaro’s unilateral decisions are surreal, such as the one that in recent days has proclaimed the reopening of gyms and hairdressing salons, but which was completely ignored by the mayors of big cities, who have kept everything closed except essential services.
A projection of theUniversity of Washington Institute of Metrics. – informs the US correspondent for the newspaper Folha de Sao Paulo – predicts that the death and infection curve will continue to grow in Brazil until August, when the victims could reach more than 88,000. A median estimate within a range that actually ranges from 33,000 to 198,000 deaths. After this likely peak in July, the curve will stabilize and begin a gradual decline, with an estimated 780 deaths per day in August, according to the study. Yesterday, the day it registered 11,385 new cases, Brazil became the sixth country in the world in the number of infected people, equivalent to 188,974 patients (and more than 13 thousand deaths), and overtook France, ranking sixth in the world, according to The American Johns Hopkins University Calculation.
May 14, 2020 (change May 14, 2020 | 15:18)
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