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Rezza (ISS): “Two months later, the country is much better, but the attention is still high
To draw the map is the National Health Observatory in the Italian regions, coordinated by Walter Ricciardi, director of the Observatory and ordinary of Hygiene at the Catholic University, and by Alessandro Solipaca, scientific director of the Observatory. According to experts, “the end of the Covid-19 emergency in Italy could have different times in the regions depending on the territories more or less exposed to the epidemic.” At this time of planning for the so-called phase 2, “it is more than ever necessary to provide an assessment of the gradualness and progression of infections in order to provide the necessary support for the important political decisions of the coming days,” says Solipaca.
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Italy checkup. Lombardy and Piedmont under siege. The south is slowing down the infection for now. Intensive care is emptied
For this reason, “the Observatory carried out an analysis with the aim of identifying not the exact date, it points out, but the date before which the reduction of new infections to zero is unlikely to be expected.” A work that “is based on the data available daily by the Civil Protection from February 24 to April 17.”
The statistical models estimated for each region are regressive, nonlinear in nature (the Observatory explains) and, therefore, are not epidemiological, therefore, they are not based on the amount of population exposed, the susceptible population and the contagious coefficient. R0, but they approximate the trend of new cases observed over time.
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Reset alarm, one hundred thousand companies will reopen with precertification to the prefects
The projections take into account the blocking measures introduced by the Dpcm. Therefore, “any measure to facilitate the blockade, with the reopening of activities and the movement of people who should intervene as of today, would make the projections no longer probable.” Finally, the specialists point out that “the precision of the projections is linked to the correct detection of new infections. In fact, it is known that these can be underestimated due to asymptomatic infections and the number of swabs performed.”
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Coronavirus, marine plexiglass? No thanks “Don’t ban free beaches”
Again: “the Autonomous Province of Bolzano It should approach the elimination of infections from the end of May, despite the fact that the number of infections observed in general is low in absolute value (29 cases on April 18), however, the trend of new cases is decreasing with particular slowness. In the Lazio region we should expect at least May 12, in southern Italy the elimination of new infections should start between the end of April and the beginning of May. “
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Tuscany, serological tests begin screening with 40 private institutes
In one table, the National Health Observatory in the Italian regions details region by region “the minimum date of absence of new cases of contagion”: Piedmont May 21, Valle d’Aosta May 13, Lombardy June 28, Bolzano May 26, Trento May 16, Veneto May 21, Friuli Venezia Giulia May 19, Liguria May 14, Emilia Romagna May 29, Tuscany May 30, Umbria April 21, Marches June 27, Lazio May 12, Abruzzo 7 May, Molise April 26, Campania May 9, Puglia May 7, Basilicata April 21, Calabria May 1, Sicily April 30, Sardinia April 29
