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The end of the Covid-19 emergency in Italy could have a different moment in regions that depend on territories more or less exposed to the epidemic: In Lombardy and Marche, the absence of new cases is likely to occur no earlier than the end of June., in Emilia-Romagna and Tuscany not before the end of May. In the other regions, the elimination of infections could occur between the third week of April and the first week of May. These are the projections made by the experts of the National Health Observatory in the Italian Regions.
The evolution of contagions.
At this time it is more than ever necessary to provide an assessment on the gradualness and evolution of infections, in order to provide the necessary support for the important political elections of the next few days, explained Alessandro Solipaca. The new SARV CoV-2 coronavirus has so far resulted in more than 22,000 and 700 deaths in Italy, where there are currently around 172,000 and 400 infected. The National Observatory of Health in the Italian Regions has carried out An analysis with the aim of identifying, not the exact date, but the date before which the elimination of new infections is unlikely to be expected. – explains Dr. Solipaca – and is based on the data that the Civil Protection makes available daily from February 24 to April 17.
Projections take blocking into account
The statistical models estimated for each Region are regressive (non-linear in nature) and, therefore, are not epidemiological, therefore, they are not based on the amount of population exposed, the susceptible population and the contagious coefficient R0, but they are approximate trend of new cases observed over time. Projections take closing measures into account introduced by the DPCM. Thus, any measure to loosen the lock, with the reopening of activities and the movement of people who should intervene from todaywould make projections unlikely. Finally, it should be borne in mind that the precision of the projections linked to the correct detection of new infections, in fact, are known to be underestimated due to asymptomatic infections and the number of swabs performed.
The first and the last
According to the projections of the Observatory Basilicata and Umbria would emerge first from Covid-19 infection, that on April 17 had only 1 and 8 new cases respectively; the latter would be the North Central Regions where the infection started earlier. In Lombardy, in which the first infection occurred, it is not reasonable to expect new cases to be canceled before June 28, in the Marche region no later than June 27. In fact, for both regions the downward trend is particularly slow. The Autonomous Province of Bolzano must address the elimination of infections from May 28.Although the number of infections observed is generally of low absolute value (29 cases on April 18), however, the trend of new cases is decreasing with particular slowness.
The epidemic is slowly shrinking.
In the Lazio region we must wait at least May 12.
In southern Italy, the elimination of new infections should start between the end of April and the beginning of May. The projections made show that the epidemic is slowing down very slowlytherefore, these data suggest that the transition to the so-called phase 2 should take place gradually and with different times from region to region. Excessive anticipation of the end of the blockade could, very likely, push back the hands of the pandemic and frustrate the efforts and sacrifices made so far.
April 20, 2020 (change April 20, 2020 | 11:37)
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