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Registration in the fall of patients in the ICU. This is good news today, reading the April 16 civil protection bulletin on the emergence of the coronavirus in Italy. Total outbreaks of new Coronaviruses are 168,941 (+ 3,786 compared to yesterday), of which 40,164 recovered (+ 2,072) and 22,170 deaths (+ 525). According to the bulletin, 76,778 patients are currently in home isolation (72% of the total), 26,893 are hospitalized and 2,936 are hospitalized in intensive care. The data, these, continue to decrease, confirming the negative trend in recent days. The made swabs are 1,178,403 (+60,999 compared to yesterday). The most affected regions are still Lombardy, Piedmont and Emilia Romagna.
“If the decline continues at the current rate, it is conceivable that there will be zero cases around June 15.” Giovanni Forti, 25, is a student of Economics at the University of Pisa and at the Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies. Since 2018, he has been on the editorial staff of YouTrend, where he handles editorial, data analysis, and data visualization production, and on YouTrend has written several articles on the Covid-19 pandemic: “Despite the 3788 Cases today, a greater number than in the last days – Giovanni Forti explains to Fanpage.it -, however, we have a significant decrease in infections compared to last week: remember that last Thursday there were 4204. The calculation The moving average states that last week’s figure and enter today’s data. This explains why even today’s data, despite everything, should be read with moderate optimism. “
Ok, but why is there this upturn in cases?
Today there were 61 thousand tampons, and this explains a lot the rebound in today’s cases. We had to catch up on the last days of Easter. During the week we have an average of 45 thousand tampons per day, which is a positive threshold.
Where do these infections come from?
The worst news today comes from Piedmont, which has had 879 new cases, an increase of nearly 5%, driven by Turin, which today registers 460 more cases, and becomes the first province in Italy for the growth of infected people.
Apart from the peak …
In the last days we were talking about increases of the order of 2% or 3%. Lombardy also increases, around 1.5%. The figure for Tuscany is also significant, with an increase of 300 more cases and a percentage increase similar to that of Piedmont. It is significant, because Tuscany has not increased as much since April 2.
We are always talking about the same regions …
Piedmont and Lombardy, led by Turin and Milan, are the Italian epicenters of the epidemic, much more so than Brescia and Bergamo. While, apart from Basilicata, which is growing 5%, with 16 more cases discovered in a Matera RSA, all the southern regions have very limited increases.
In fact, are we talking about an epidemic that stopped in the north?
Yes, and not only The situation seems generally very stable now. Few cases at the beginning of the week, a slight increase, but even less than the previous week, in the second part of the week. All of this leads to a final epidemic that we begin to see within 8-10 weeks. We would not like to give the moving average too much reliability as a predictive tool, but it is conceivable to think that we will reach the threshold of zero cases in the second half of June. If we continue at this rate, we will reach the goal in eight weeks.
Let’s close with good news. Today the healed also increase …
Surely the large number of tampons also pushes the healed. But also that we are in a phase of decline in intensive care, which today registered a -164, which is the best figure since March 20 and perhaps represents the best news today, by far.
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