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PORDENONE AND UDINE – “The peak has not yet reached, we expect an increase of six to seven days before reaching the top of the curve.” Words by Maurizio Ruscio, director of the Burlo Garofolo research center in Trieste. And the clinical eye of Coronavirus in Fvg. The curve he refers to is that of hospitalizations, which despite yesterday’s slight decrease is still destined to rise and put even more pressure on the health system. For this reason, in the coming days, the “battle of the hospitals” will be fought in the pavilion. And there is no blockade that is maintained, because any more restrictive measure would not manifest its effects immediately, but only after two or three weeks.
THE SHOCK WAVE
Days of fire, in the hospitals of Friuli Venezia Giulia. In fact, the impact generated by the darkest days of the infection is expected, that is, the three consecutive days with new cases of more than a thousand. The proportion of asymptomatic patients has always remained high, but by expanding the base of infected there is the risk that the health system will suffer another blow soon. And in the three Health Trusts there is a dossier ready to be opened: it includes the closure of all non-Covid activities still in place, with the exception of emergency, post-traumatic and oncological surgery. As in the darkest days of the first wave. Covid departments, now at their limit, will suffer further expansions to the detriment of habitual hospitalizations: we will try not to exceed an unthinkable threshold, that of 60 percent of places in the medical area. Yes, because the occupation of half the beds is already close.
THE NUMBERS
At Fvg there are 561 people hospitalized in ordinary Covid wards and 54 in intensive care. The threshold of 600 occupied places has already been exceeded (to be precise today there are 615) and the account does not include the 40 people housed in the two RSA Covid de Sacile and Maniago (now full, so much that an expansion is expected in the municipality of La Pedemontana). and in the only dedicated residence in the province of Trieste, which in turn has capacity for 35 people. The total number of people still in need of medical care today therefore exceeds 700 units. In addition, at the Covid hotel in Udine (at the Zaffiro residence in via Umago) there are another thirty people in intermediate care. The first two thresholds indicated as critical by the Ministry of Health have been exceeded a few days ago: intensive care is not a concern, since the level is almost stable at 31 percent, therefore, one point above the first limit of security; The problem is in the medical area, where Covid has already devoured 561 of the 1,270 total places, that is, 44 percent of the total. The situation in the rest of Italy, on the other hand, is the opposite: the hospitalization curve is flat and the employment rate is set at 51 percent. Soon, therefore, Friuli Venezia Giulia could exceed the national figure.
CONFRONT AND FUTURE
During the first wave, a maximum of 240 people in the medical area and 62 in intensive care were hospitalized in the hospitals of Friuli Venezia Giulia. Thus, there is a decline in critically ill patients, while the number of people needing ward care has almost tripled. A factor that is testing both the resilience of the Covid response and the need to provide the necessary care to all other patients who continue to become ill from other things as soon as possible. The spectrum must exceed 800 patients, including also dedicated RSAs, effectively sending not citizens, but hospitals, to the red zone. It would be a problem. To avoid this scenario, there is only one factor to look forward to: the decrease in infections.
Last updated: 08:57
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