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Inside October there will be 50,000 new cases of coronavirus per day in the UK without further restrictive measures. A trend that will lead to 200 deaths per day one month after. The warning comes from the lord Patrick Vallance, head of the government’s scientific council.
In the UK, the Covid-19 emergency has reached a (negative) tipping point: only on Sunday were other reported 3,899 almost and 18 dead. Even the mayor of London, where the percentage of infected population would have reached 17%, urged to act quickly to block the progressive advance of the virus.
It is estimated that around 70,000 people in the UK currently have Covid-19 and around 6,000 a day contract it.
Coronavirus: 50,000 new cases per day expected by October
Vallance pointed out that these numbers are not a mere hypothesis, but a clear warning: “At the moment we estimate that infections will double every seven days. Continuing like this, we would have something like 50,000 cases a day in mid-October and 200 deaths a day in mid-November. “.
Prof. Chris whitty, the government’s top medical adviser, added that “The UK could quickly go from very low numbers to huge numbers due to this exponential growth.”.
Covid emergency at a critical point
“We are at a critical point”said the British experts, who want to clarify: the increase in the number of cases cannot be attributed to an increase in swabs, as there is also an increase in positive results.
Whitty said that Covid-19 mortality rate it is significantly higher than the seasonal flu, which kills an average of 7,000 people a year or up to 20,000 people in a particularly bad year.
Meanwhile, the North West of England and some counties in South Wales will face new local blockades from Tuesday; More blocks will almost certainly be placed in ScotlandPrime Minister Nicola Sturgeon said.
New closures and restrictive measures
The first Minister Boris johnson held a meeting in Downing Street with Whitty, Chancellor Rishi Sunak, and Health Secretary Matt Hancock to discuss new possible restrictive measures for England. From what has emerged so far, the possibility of another closure as in spring, as well as closing schools and non-essential activities again, seems precluded.
“The government must do whatever is necessary to avoid a new blockade, which would cause unimaginable damage to our economy and the well-being of the people.”said Labor Jonathan Ashworth, a former shadow health secretary.
At the moment it is not clear what the new restrictions will consist of, but the truth is that we will have to act quickly and with specific measures to avoid a more catastrophic scenario.
