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Oneslight deceleration of the curve epidemic. This is the good news that comes from independent monitoring of the Gimbe Foundation. For the rest, however, the outlook is worrying, especially with regard to the number of deaths in this second wave of coronavirus. In the week of November 4 to 10, compared to the previous one, victims grew by 70% reaching an altitude of three thousand 2,918 against the 1,712 deaths in the previous seven days). All the indicators on the widespread spread of the epidemic in the country are increasing: the number of new cases (235,634 versus 195,051), and tampons (872,026 vs 817,717) and the ratio of positives / cases analyzed reaches 27% (last week it was 23.9%). The positives currently grow 41%i (590,110 against 418,142 of the previous seven days). The situation in hospitals is also further complicated: hospitalized patients with symptoms (28,633, + 35% more than the previous week) and the tintensive therapy reached 2,971 (+ 33%). “The increase in positives is currently reflected in the number of patients hospitalized with symptoms and in intensive care, with hospitals ever closer to saturation, as well as in the number of deaths, which in the last week exceeded 2,900” Explain. Nino Cartabellotta, president of the Gimbe Foundation.
Hospital beds
Compared to the previous week in almost all regions there is a slight slowdown in the percentage increase of cases that in the best of hypotheses it could depend on the effect of the containment measures introduced at the end of October. Or it could be a consequence of test capacity saturation, as positive cases currently continue to rise everywhere. Cause concern hospital occupancy rates: in 11 Regions saturation threshold was exceeded 40% of beds in the medical area and in another 11 Regions that of 30% for intensive care.
Healthcare workers
Another piece of information that should be carefully monitored is the number of infected healthcare workers As “in the last 30 days – explains the president – happened 19,217 contagion, compared to 1,650 in the previous 30 days. In addition to the risk of outbreaks in hospitals, in nursing homes and in protected environments, there is concern about the impact on health personnel, who were already understaffed and who suffered the first wave ”
“The Rt index is a rear view mirror”
The follow-up to the second wave of Gimbe was presented on November 10 to the House Social Affairs Committee. Cartabellotta reiterated the need to make available in an open and detailed format and noted the criticality of the monitoring system of the pandemic that then determines the government’s options. Limited timeliness, due to the synchronization of data collection and increasing delays in notifications by regions, favors the execution of the virus. Not only that: “The color of a Region is decided on the basis of two main parameters: the Rt index and the risk classification by 21 indicators. Mom the Rt value is inappropriate to inform quick decisions why, photograph a picture of related infections 2-3 weeks before and it has many limitations ”explains Cartabellotta. In short, according to the Gimbe president, “The Rt index uses the rear view mirror instead of binoculars” and “slows down the timeliness and scope of measures to contain the epidemic curve.” For these reasons, «The monitoring system not a suitable tool for decision making. Without an immediate change of direction in the evaluation criteria and in the corresponding restrictions, only a total blockade will be able to avoid the collapse ”concludes Cartabellotta.
November 12, 2020 (change November 12, 2020 | 11:06)
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