Yes, it’s historic, but it’s just an illusion of the peace that President Trump promised he would deliver.
Back in January this year, Trump announced the contours of what he called his Vision for Peace – officially known as Peace for Prosperity. Palestinians boycotted announcing it as money for land, in their opinion to give up territory in exchange for promises of improved business prospects, while Israel threatened to take the land independently.
In recent years, Trump has raised expectations about a breakthrough Palestinian-Israeli deal, and thus the prospect of an even more downfall if it failed.
The new agreement is an implicit recognition that Trump’s original peace plan is dead, and yet it once again undermines the political fortunes of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Netanyahu gets what he wants, decades of Arab incomprehension for a deal on Israel’s terms is stifling, too little or no cost.
The impulse of the Israeli prime minister to annex swaths of Israeli-occupied land from the West Bank could have been the contest to ignite thin dry tensions, and lift Palestinian aspirations for their own viable state. For now, the UAE seems to be dampening that perspective.
Anwar Gargash, the UAE’s erudite Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, defines the success of the agreement, in part, as “Israel’s obligation to stop the annexation of Palestinian lands, which will be the solution for two states retained. “
At first glance, the agreement sounds rocky, but the tires are treading and the threat of escalation has only slightly shifted along the way. The indication is in the word “stop.”
The architect of the agreement, Kushner, described it this way, “I believe they are [Israel] will not take action to move forward unless we have an understanding between America and Israel that it is the right action at the right time. “
To the question when that could be his answer, how long does a piece of string last? To say, “Sleeping between a long time and a short time, that’s what temporary means.”
Netanyahu has no doubt, temporary means temporary.
“We have received a request to wait temporarily for President Trump. It is a temporary postponement. It has not been removed from the table, I tell you,” he said. He is also a skilled political operator who plays for a domestic audience, annexation is less a direct goal, more a manipulation to turn negotiations in his favor.
Gargash seems to hint that the UAE is playing for time, possibly calculating as a temporary run after the elections in November, “we think there will never be an exact time, never an exact moment, but at the same time if we really get this promise it will be like a time bomb on the two state solution. “
So the timing works for the UAE – sort of – but why now for the others?
Both Trump and perhaps Netanyahu oppose elections and need votes. And both run out of time to cement a legacy, to shake up their otherwise relatively controversial records in office. Netanyahu has a corruption trial hanging over his head, Trump’s legal problems are likely to come as well.
In the deal, Trump, and the UAE, handed Netanyahu the means to bury his crimes under a veneer of success that opens the lucrative Arab market to Israel’s high tech and security.
Look no further than the second paragraph of the Joint Reconciliation Declaration and hints at the hype surrounding the event, “This historic diplomatic breakthrough will foster peace in the Middle East and is a testament to courageous diplomacy. and the vision of the three leaders and the courage of the United Arab Emirates and Israel to chart a new path that will unlock the great potential in the region. “
It was only yesterday that one of Trump’s advisers on national security, Robert O’Brien, noticed that Trump deserved a Nobel Peace Prize.
Well, why not, his predecessor Barack Obama got one and this is one piece of Obama’s legacy that Trump failed to deconstruct – the next best thing is to get one himself.
And what about the OTHER party that if they were at the table could make this a truly historic moment of deep regional significance, the Palestinians.
In short, they feel sold out, again. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas called the deal “an aggression against the Palestinian people” and “a betrayal of Jerusalem.”
His hardline Palestinian rivals Hamas are equally dismissive, saying: “We strongly condemn, in every possible way, normalization with Israel, which is considered a stick in the back for the Palestinian cause.”
The reality though, even though Gargash says they had kept alive the possibility of a surviving Palestinian state, Netanyahu had followed through on his threat to annex pieces of the West Bank, the Emirates have writing on the Arabic replenished wall. Palestinians are not praising the regional support they once did, and that means the Gulf states – which are helping the bank to roll out the Palestinians – are running out of patience.
This deal confirms a view from the Gulf that Palestinian leaders are seen as the problem, or rather their failure to clean up corruption, and negotiation is the problem, although their counterpart for talks for the past decade, Netanyahu is not a tasty negotiating partner. Even if they play by the rules, the perception in Palestinian houses is that the deck is always stacked against them, just what this agreement hardly reinforces.
Progressively weakened by division and radicalism, the position of the Palestinians is more shaky than ever. So if they cry out loud, then they may be right, the UAE has kicked them in the skins.
What can be seen is whether it is an “attention”, when it smells in the alarm clock and the coffee, or if it is designed to fall on this generation of Palestinian leaders.
Gargash is not talking about turning off the money tap, but he is thinking about it.
“We intend to see an independent Palestinian state with Jerusalem as the capital of that, that is our political commitment. But on the other hand, I think we as a part of our world have been a great supporter historically of the Palestinians are politically and financially different, “he said.
Is that a good deal?
Gargash’s “time bomb” also hits her. Witness the near-calamitous backlash following the assassination of Trump by Iran’s top general Qasem Soleimani in January this year.
The stakes in the region are high, Iraq is less than stable, there is a war in Syria, Lebanon is in political decline, Yemen’s war borders and it all affects an Iranian foreign policy that seeks to shake up stability and all sky – high tensions with the US continue after crisis.
If all that was not enough to encourage the UAE to compromise on what is a monumental step for them, then the threat of economic massacre in the wake of the pandemic with coronavirus ratcheting regional fragility to even greater heights is certain.
For Trump, who lives off short-term political sales, the deal is still only intended, nothing but hot political air until signing in three weeks.
The test will be traction on the promise of bilateral deals to be signed on “investment, tourism, direct flights, security, telecommunications, technology, energy, health care, culture, environment”, turning into concrete results.
Netanyahu is less worried now, the hitherto immobile object of Arab opposition to Israel’s conditions has shifted, and Trump says more Arab states will come on board.
Even if you are Palestinian, the agreement is better than drowning, but only marginally.
And how long can all sides withstand water? That may depend on American voters and a president with the insight, energy and passion to make a real difference, and if that is lacking, then stepping up water will work just fine for Netanyahu.
Is anyone coming forward?
The UAE has certainly started its larger regional partner Saudi Arabia diplomatically. And has received some, albeit temporary, levy on regional security while maintaining some independence from Trump’s hawkish policies on Iran.
And all the uproar that the UAE receives from Palestinians the Arab street is not in firmament, so its cost is low.
In the end, the deal is only as strong as the benefits all parties receive, and yet again with Trump in office, Netanyahu seems to have bagged the lion’s share of those.
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