- Iran has suffered a series of bombings and fires at military installations in recent weeks, including major nuclear and missile production facilities.
- This is part of a broader campaign to harm Iran or even pressure it into a military confrontation before the November election, when President Donald Trump could be rejected, sources told Insider.
- A former Israeli defense official told Insider that it was common knowledge that at least some of the latest attacks in Iran were carried out by Israeli intelligence.
- An EU official also told Insider they feared Israel would plan to provoke Iran into a military confrontation “as long as Trump remains in office.”
- Israel could not participate in high-pressure operations if Joe Biden, the alleged Democratic presidential candidate, were in office, the EU official added.
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Israel is engaged in an extended campaign to pressure or harm Iran before President Donald Trump can be removed in the November elections, a former Israeli defense official and a current European Union intelligence official told Insider.
Iran has seen weekly incidents, including explosions at a missile production facility on June 22; the Natanz nuclear facility, Iran’s largest uranium enrichment center, on July 2; and a major shipyard in the port city of Bushehr on Wednesday.
A damaged building after a fire at the Natanz nuclear facility in Iran on July 2.
Reuters
These attacks have pushed the country to the limit, with almost daily reports of fires, explosions and other mishaps treated as possible foreign sabotage.
A Middle East official told The New York Times earlier this month that Israel’s intelligence services were responsible for the explosion at the nuclear facilities. Israel’s Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi said at a press conference on July 5 that with regard to Iran, “we take action that is best left unsaid.”
Iranian authorities said most of the reported incidents were normal accidents, but that in a handful of cases, enemy spoilers were suspected.
A former Israeli defense official told Insider it was common knowledge in Israeli intelligence circles that at least some of the events in Iran in the past month were the work of Israeli intelligence operations.
“I don’t know what exactly, and I wouldn’t say it anyway because the goal is for the Iranians to feel considerable stress trying to decide what our job might have been,” they said.
The former official spoke on condition of anonymity, citing fears of repercussion, but Insider knows his identity.
Satellite image of the Iran Centrifuge Assembly Center building on June 11, 2020, before an explosion on July 2.
Google Earth / CNES / Airbus through the Institute of Science and International Security
Satellite image of the Iran Centrifuge Assembly Center building on July 4, 2020, two days after an explosion.
Google Earth / CNES / Airbus through the Institute of Science and International Security
The current Israeli government policy on Iran is clear, the former official added.
“It was decided to follow the example of the Trump administration of exerting ‘maximum pressure’ on the Iranians,” they said, referring to the United States’ policy of economic sanctions towards Iran.
‘Maximum pressure, minimum strategy’
The attacks appear to be part of a “maximum pressure, minimum strategy” campaign, said the EU intelligence official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they cannot be named to discuss active intelligence issues. His identity is known to Insider.
The source said Iran may be considering a hasty response after showing relative patience in the wake of the killing of Senior Commander Qassem Soleimani in a US drone attack in January.
“It is one thing to ask intransigents to see an incident like Soleimani in the long term in light of the COVID global crisis and a host of other factors,” the official told Insider, referring to the shift in global attention to the pandemic. of coronavirus. . “It is quite another thing to carry out a rapid series of operations without a strategy, and I fear that the Israeli plan here is to provoke an Iranian response that could turn into a military escalation as long as Trump remains in office.”
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and President Donald Trump. Michael Gruber / Getty Images; Olivier Douliery-Pool / Getty Images; Samantha Lee / Business Insider
‘Much less appetite for secret missions and adventures … under Biden’s administration’
With a broad belief among America’s allies that Trump is unlikely to win reelection, Israel’s apparent shift in tactics toward high-pressure “kinetic” operations seems to reflect the belief that under a Biden administration, there would be a movement to save the 2015 nuclear deal that had been sunk by Trump.
“There would be much less appetite for secret adventures and missions to blow up nuclear facilities under the Biden administration,” said the EU official.
When asked how much the US allies would use the results of the 2020 presidential election to determine policy, the official was blunt.
“There is a reason that we all follow his elections and watch CNN,” the official said.
