Maintaining a focus on science, not politics, could be especially critical to a coronavirus vaccine, amid a search effort that drew intense public interest and progressed at world record speed. The fastest scientists have developed a new vaccine to date is four years; If successful, a viable coronavirus injection can be found in less than one.
It is a tribute to the unprecedented number of companies and resources dedicated to the subject, vaccine experts said. But they were also concerned that the pace threatened to increase public skepticism of an eventual vaccine, a challenge the administration has already contributed to by spending months promising a breakthrough in winter.
“I think the government was right to do Warp Speed, it just wants to be called differently,” said Offit, warning that the emphasis on producing a vaccine quickly runs the risk of questioning its scientific rationale.
Offit, a member of the National Institutes of Health vaccine group who recently met with Warp Speed officer and Army Lt. Gen. Paul Ostrowski, also described the government as treating Warp Speed as a “weapon secret “and choosing to protect much of its activities from the public
Others emphasized that the first round of coronavirus vaccines may not even end up being the most effective, leaving the United States far from the global “cure” that Trump has long promised.
“An incredible amount has been done in that short span of time, and so far, not much has gone wrong,” Moore said of the first six months of work to get a vaccine. “The most difficult steps are probably yet to come, all deadlines are rosy, and in the real world, very few things are going faster than planned.”
Scientists will not know for months after distribution of an approved vaccine begins whether it will be effective in the long term or whether there are variations in how it protects different people. Children, for example, will not be included in any of the upcoming phase 3 trials. Older people have weaker immune systems and are among the most vulnerable to the virus. A partially effective vaccine may not work for them.
All of these uncertainties are at odds with the political incentive to declare victory over the virus.
“There is clearly a political goal for the president to say, ‘I have delivered a vaccine,'” said Barry Bloom, an infectious disease expert and professor of public health at Harvard. “But we won’t know in three months, or six months, in January, how long the antibodies last.”
Trump advisers in recent weeks have emphasized those low odds that a vaccine will arrive in time to boost his candidacy, urging the president to refocus on more immediate steps and take a more active role in fighting the pandemic.
“We have counseled him on that, and it’s not like he has his head in the sand,” said one campaign aide, who nonetheless lamented Trump’s relative disinterest in the day-to-day response effort. “Look at it like, Mike Pence has it, Pence is handling it.”
Another Republican close to the administration attributed the focus on a vaccine to internal divisions on how to handle the most pressing aspects of the response, making it easier to unite behind the idea that one shot will end the pandemic of a once for all.
Since then, Trump has returned to the White House briefing room after weeks of sliding poll numbers and increased cases, seeking to regain control of the administration’s response messages. Still, when he stepped onto the podium on Wednesday, Trump returned to the prospect of a quick solution to the crisis.
“That would be great if we could go to the hospital and heal people,” he said. “We believe that in a very short time we will be able to do it.”
