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One of NPHET’s top doctors has officially warned that Ireland could see up to 1,500 cases a day and up to 450 people in hospital with coronavirus by November 7 at the current transmission rate.
Professor Philip Nolan, Chairman of the Irish Epidemiological Modeling Advisory Group of the National Public Health Emergency Team, revealed that there could be a disastrous rise nationwide if we were unable to “immediately” stop the spread of Covid-19.
As 611 additional cases and five more deaths emerged from the virus on Wednesday, he said: “The number of cases and hospitalizations are growing exponentially.
“The number of breeders is now estimated at 1.2.
“If we fail to reduce viral transmission nationwide immediately, we could see 1,100 to 1,500 cases per day and 300 to 450 people in hospital by November 7.”
Dr. Tony Holohan, Medical Director of the Department of Health, added: “All key indicators of the disease have further deteriorated in the three days since the last NPHET meeting on Sunday, October 4.
“COVID-19 is spreading in our community in a very worrying way. We have to break these chains of transmission.
“80 cases of COVID-19 were hospitalized in August, 206 in September and 77 so far in October.
“In August, there were 4 COVID-19 related deaths in total, 34 in September and today, October 7, we report 8 COVID-19 related deaths this month.”
Dr. Ronan Glynn, Deputy Medical Director of the Department of Health, also said: “Trends in the number of cases and incidence are now reflected in indicators of disease severity.
“The number of people hospitalized has increased from 122 last Thursday to 156 this afternoon.
“There are currently 25 people in intensive care compared to 20 a week ago.”
Dr. Siobhán Ni Bhriain, Consultant Psychiatrist and Integrated Care Leader for HSE, said: “I urge everyone to remember what they can do individually to suppress the virus and prevent an increase in demands on hospitals.
“Currently, the average length of stay for a COVID-19 patient is 20 days in the hospital and 14 days in the ICU.
“The ICU is the last stop on the path of care for any disease.
“Focus on prevention and follow public health advice to ensure pathways for care are available to as many people and treatments as possible.”
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Of the cases reported today;
- 303 are men / 305 are women
- 59% are under 45 years old
- 50% confirmed to be associated with outbreaks or are close contacts of a confirmed case
- 83 cases have been identified as community transmission
- 218 in Dublin, 63 in Cork, 60 in Donegal, 35 in Galway, 31 in Kildare, and the remaining 204 are in 21 counties.
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