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The medical director, Dr. Tony Holohan, according to one person who has worked with him, is not someone who accepts rejection with equanimity. If you don’t get away with it, you don’t walk away. Keep trying to get it.
“Tony keeps coming back and coming back to you,” says the source. “He just keeps hitting.”
It is this persistence and determination that has brought Holohan to the top of his profession. And it has been directed at the government for the past three weeks. Last Monday he got away with it.
As cases have risen in recent weeks, first in Dublin, then in border counties, and then elsewhere, Holohan and his colleagues on the public health team continued to work on their data, make their projections and give their advice. They believed that only a Level 5 lockdown would surely control the spread of the virus. And they were determined to get one.
Almost from the day the government refused to follow the recommendation of the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) three weeks ago, ministers have been feeling the heat. Holohan had acquired national leader status before the summer as the face of the state’s fight against the pandemic, with politicians in supporting roles. Now they refused to take his advice.
Ministers were asked: Are you sure? What if you are wrong?
Under pressure, the government began to tighten restrictions on a series of moves. The entire country went to level 3, then three border counties went to level 4. Then home visits were banned.
Public health experts didn’t change their advice: a full Level 5 national lockdown was needed. As soon as possible.
In public the health experts said: look, we advise, the Government decides. It is up to politicians to make decisions for the country. In private, the message was harsher: you’ll eventually have to close the door. And the sooner the better.
Untenable
According to sources familiar with his thinking, Tánaiste Leo Varadkar, who had been highly critical and publicly of Nphet’s first attempt to bring the government into a lockdown, began to realize shortly after that the government’s position could become untenable if the figures they continued to increase. rise.
In the same week that he gave an interview to Claire Byrne on RTÉ television criticizing Nphet, he began to point out that a blockade might be inevitable after all.
He told the Fine Gael parliamentary party that a “circuit breaker” might be necessary.
He wrote an article for the Sunday Independent saying that a “short and strict lockdown” might be necessary.
Some of his colleagues, students of Varadkar’s modus operandi for years, began to take notice. So did his partners in government. “Repositioning” was the verdict of a colleague. Behind the scenes, Varadkar began to argue that closure was becoming necessary. The ground was moving.
Last week, Nphet played his strongest card yet. After their weekly meeting, Holohan wrote to the Minister of Health expressing his “deep and growing concern” at the deteriorating situation. Hospitalizations increased faster than expected, indicating a “rapidly deteriorating disease trajectory nationwide.”
He warned about the capacity of the health system, noting “a very real risk that hospitals in particular will have difficulty meeting demand in the coming days and weeks.”
The message was unequivocal: close now or risk a wave of cases flooding health services. “The risk is too great to wait for further action.” It was the severest warning yet.
On Saturday, amid an atmosphere of imminent crisis that is accumulating around government buildings, a meeting was called between the heads of public health and high-ranking government figures. While there have been many comments in recent days suggesting there were no women at the meeting, there were actually three: Liz Canavan, a high-ranking public official who leads the Covid group in Government; Deirdre Gillane, Taoiseach Chief of Staff, and Anna Conlon, Eamon Ryan Chief of Staff.
They were joined by the Ministers responsible for the Economy and Public Expenditure Michael McGrath and Paschal Donohoe, Ryan, Micheál Martin, Varadkar and the Minister of Health Stephen Donnelly, as well as the Secretary General of the Department of the Taoiseach Martin Fraser, the Department of State. most powerful official.
Unemployment
At this point, McGrath, Donohoe, and Donnelly were reluctant to agree to the closure request.
McGrath and Donohoe, who a few days earlier had delivered their first budget to support an economy that was devastated by the pandemic, argued that there would be a rise in unemployment, with many jobs disappearing forever.
Donnelly thought the country should advance through the gears to Level 4 before moving on to Level 5, and give the tighter restrictions a chance to function.
However, with Varadkar getting more direct and Martin also moving, it was clear which way the wind was blowing.
Both men were very aware of politics. What Nphet had effectively done was to increase the price of being wrong for politicians.
The public warnings meant that if politicians did not follow their advice and hospitals were overwhelmed in November, the government would have nowhere to hide – its ability and credibility to handle the pandemic, and more broadly, to govern, would be destroyed.
And so, while many high-level figures weren’t convinced the shutdown was necessary, resisting Nphet’s advice turned into a political gamble they were unwilling to take.
There were extensive contacts between the three leaders after the meeting and during the following day, Sunday. But when the cabinet subcommittee on Covid met on Monday, the decision was more or less made.
Shock
By mid-afternoon on Monday, the news began to leak through the government bubble. There was commotion in various sectors, both among those inside and outside, who expected perhaps a move to Level 4, but not a complete blockade. It had been, one reasoned, days since the home visiting ban was introduced and he would surely be given some time to see if it worked. I would not do it.
“It is a massive failure of nerves,” said a source involved in the deliberations.
“Absolutely crazy,” said a senior source.
“Terrible decision,” said another.
His face worried but determined, Martin descended the steps in the central hall of the Government Buildings to face the television cameras, broadcasting live to a nation that already knew what they were going to tell him: time to duck. Again.
“Even when winter comes, there is hope,” Martin said. And there is light. If we work hard together over the next six weeks, we will have the opportunity to celebrate Christmas in a meaningful way. “
The Taoiseach did not explain what that meant.
The October through November restrictions are certainly less severe than the long lockdown in spring and early summer. Fundamentally, schools remain open, although there is something akin to terror in the government that the teachers’ unions might not cooperate after next week’s midterm recess. One person speculates that the potential public reaction to a school closing will keep teachers in the classroom. The same person acknowledges that the biggest loser would be the Government.
Public patience
But many companies are irritated by the restrictions, while the myriad contradictions and confusions at the heart of any “blunderbuss” approach (in the words of one insider) is irritating people in a way that they did not in April.
Public patience, and therefore cooperation, is wearing thin. There is open questioning of Nphet’s advice within the government. There is also the feeling, both in the Government and in the Opposition, that the credibility of the administration, and that of its leaders, has been significantly damaged by the events of recent weeks.
“Lack of courage” was a phrase used by several people.
“All they have achieved is a longer blockade,” says one minister. “We ended up coming back with our tails between our legs.”
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