CMO ‘deeply concerned’ about the spread of Covid since Sunday

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The medical director has said that he is “deeply concerned” by the spread of Covid-19 since the last NPHET meeting last Sunday.

It comes as the Health Department was notified of five more coronavirus-related deaths and 611 additional cases.

It brings the total number of Covid-19 related deaths in Ireland to 1,816. The number of confirmed cases now stands at 39,584.

In his first Health Department news conference since returning from a leave period, Dr. Tony Holohan said there has been a “further deterioration” in “the key indicators that were considered by NPHET on Sunday.”

“We are deeply concerned about the changing path of this infection,” he said.

He also said Sunday’s NPHET findings and recommendations required “an early, serious and confidential discussion,” adding that that “did not happen.”

In a statement, the National Public Health Emergency Team said that of the newly identified cases 303 are men and 305 are women. 59% are under 45 years old.

50% of new cases are associated with outbreaks or are close contacts of a confirmed case. NPHET says 83 cases have been identified as community transmission.

Of the 611 new cases currently, 218 are in Dublin, 63 in Cork, 60 in Donegal, 35 in Galway, 31 in Kildare, and the remaining 204 are in 21 counties.

Interactive map: Covid-19 cases in your area

Deputy Chief Medical Officer Dr. Ronan Glynn says there has been an increase in the number of people hospitalized with the virus.

“Trends in the number of cases and incidence are now reflected in indicators of disease severity,” he said.

“The number of people hospitalized has risen from 122 last Thursday to 156 this afternoon. There are currently 25 people in intensive care compared to 20 a week ago.”

Dr. Glynn said in the Health Department briefing that 21 counties now have a 14-day incidence rate of more than 50, while Donegal remains the highest at 312.

He said that in the last two weeks there have been 5,925 new cases and that the average age is 33 years.

9% of these cases correspond to children between 0 and 14 years old, while 25% correspond to children between 15 and 24 years old. Another 9.5% corresponds to people over 65 years of age.

In the last two weeks there have been 397 confirmed cases of Covid-19 among healthcare workers.

Dr. Glynn said in the briefing that there has been an increase in mortality.

He said that in all of August and September there were four and 34 deaths respectively. However, in the first six days of October, eight additional deaths were already reported, and five deaths are reported today, all of whom died this month.

There is also an increase in the number of outbreaks in nursing home settings.

Dr. Glynn said there are at least six outbreaks so far in October and at least five open clusters with more than 20 cases in nursing home residents.

Position “very precarious”, says Professor Nolan

Meanwhile, the Chairman of NPHET’s Irish Epidemiological Modeling Advisory Group said the number of cases and hospitalizations are “growing exponentially”.

Professor Philip Nolan said: “The number of breeders is now estimated at 1.2. If we fail to reduce viral transmission across the country immediately, we could see 1,100 to 1,500 cases per day and 300 to 450 people in the hospital for November 7. “

Speaking at the press conference, he said that we are in a “rapidly deteriorating” and “very precarious” position, as we are now in a “phase of exponential growth”.

Professor Nolan said the “bottom line” now is that unless there is a “very, very significant reduction” in the transmission of the virus, we will see “numbers of cases and hospitalizations that will be a very significant challenge for us as a society.”

He said they are now urging people to radically restrict their social contacts to stop the spread of the virus.

“If this does not happen, we will see an exponential growth of cases,” he added.

Professor Nolan said the virus is growing at a rate of 4% per day, and if it continues at this rate, we could be seeing around 1,300 cases per day by the end of the first week of November.

There is no county where the incidence of the virus is not a cause for concern and where the “best estimate” for the reproductive number is 1.2 for the entire country, the professor said.

However, he cautioned that “frankly the situation is worse than that” because the estimate is skewed by the fact that Dublin cases have not grown as fast as they have.

“So the R number is likely to be less than 1.2 and closer to 1 in Dublin, but for the rest of the country it is significantly higher than 1.5,” he said.

Professor Nolan said that a model from three weeks ago predicted 590 cases for October 7, and we report 611 today.

In the coming weeks, he said that if the R number is 1.8, the cases will “take off.”

If it’s 1.2, he said, it wouldn’t accelerate that fast and we need it to be 0.9 or less.

However, he said that if the reproductive number is between 1.2 and 1.4, then we can expect to see between 1,100 and 1,500 cases per day by the end of the first week of November.

“The number of cases will double every 18 days if nothing changes,” he said.

Professor Nolan said the situation outside Dublin is “worse”, with a growth rate “significantly higher” and an R number estimated at 1.5 or 1.6 for the rest of the country.

He warned that we cannot protect people over 65, “nor can they protect themselves,” if the level of disease in the wider community continues to rise.



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