With the addition of 5G and a rumored new design, the iPhone 12 is one of the most anticipated phones in years. But will it lead to a so-called ‘supercycle’ of upgrades, as some predict?
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives told CNN that the “iPhone 12 represents the most important product cycle for (Apple CEO Tim) Cook & Co. since iPhone 6 in 2014.” He added that Wall Street “underestimates the massive rising demand for this supercycle for Apple.”
Ives is very Bullis about the prospects for Apple, and estimates that a whopping 350 million of the total 950 million iPhones on the market could be upgraded within the next 12 to 18 months.
Other analysts say not so fast. And they are reducing the importance of 5G as a driving factor for iPhone upgrades among consumers. Plus, there’s another pandemic going on that has hit the economy hard.
“There are undoubtedly many consumers who stopped upgrading last year, and expected Apple to launch a 5G iPhone this year,” said Avi Greengart, lead analyst for Techsponential. “However, I do not think anyone can predict the sale of iPhone with any degree of certainty. The economic fallout from the global pandemic is depressing demand.”
Then there is the matter of 5G. Yes, deployments are accelerating, but 5G will not be this country national in the US over the big three carriers. T-Mobile has the widest footprint so far, and AT&T and Verizon are catching up.
And while 5G is an important feature to have if you want a future-proof phone, there are no killer applications for it yet. You just get faster download speed and less latency for things like streaming games.
“I think the iPhone 12 will drive upgrades,” said Carolina Milanesi, an analyst with Creative Strategies. “But unless there’s much more to come than 5G, I doubt we’ll see a superbike. For most consumers, 5G is not a necessity yet.”
There are other iPhone 12 upgrades to be excited about, based on the leaks. There should be four models this time around, including a new compact 5.4-inch iPhone 12 that should be the most affordable of the bundle. The price could be as low as $ 649 based on previous reports.
All four models of iPhone 12 will expect a fast new A14 Bionic chip that should blow Android phones away and all four should have an OLED display. The 5.4-inch iPhone 12 and 6.1-inch iPhone 12 Max will reportedly pack two cameras, while the 6.1-inch iPhone 12 Pro and 6.7-inch iPhone 12 Pro Max will get a third camera ( telephoto) plus a LiDAR sensor for better AR performance.
However, the jury is out on whether the iPhone 12 Pro phones will sport a smooth 120Hz display. Recent rumors have thrown cold water at that possibility.
Phone buyers generally care about core features like screen size and quality and battery life, and Apple A14 Bionic chip could really help with the latter. An earlier leak that this new 5nm chip could be 30% more efficient than the A13.
But I would not expect 5G to be a major purchasing driver for the iPhone 12 coming this October.
“In most countries around the world, 5G networks are still in the early stages of deployment,” Greengart said. “I expect Apple to launch only 4G iPhone configurations, segmented by price or regional variation.”
The Ives of Wedbush has also predicted that a lower cost, 4G-only iPhone 12 will hit the market early next year. And we have heard that rumor from other sources as well.
Assuming the economy continues to struggle, the best-inexpensive phones – like the $ 349 Pixel 4a and $ 399 iPhone SE – could become even more attractive. They prove that you can get most of the features you need for less money than you think.
Adding 5G to the iPhone 12 will not be enough to move the needle.
